房地产行业数据点评：9月销售降幅略有改善，关注近期政策效果

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the real estate sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry in the medium to long term [7][27]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the sales area and amount in September showed a continued narrowing of decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 17.1% in sales area and 22.7% in sales amount for the first nine months of 2024, indicating a potential recovery trend [2][10]. - The report emphasizes that recent government policies aimed at stabilizing the real estate market are expected to improve sales and alleviate negative expectations regarding falling property prices [7][27]. - The report notes that while there is a slight improvement in investment, new construction has seen an expanded decline, reflecting ongoing challenges in the market [18]. Summary by Sections Sales Performance - In the first nine months of 2024, the total sales area of commercial housing reached 703 million square meters, down 17.1% year-on-year, with a narrowing decline of 0.9 percentage points compared to the previous month [2][10]. - The sales amount for the same period decreased by 22.7%, also showing a narrowing decline of 0.9 percentage points [2][10]. - In September alone, the sales area was 97 million square meters, down 11% year-on-year, marking the lowest level for the same period since 2014 [2][10]. Financial Performance of Real Estate Companies - For the first nine months of 2024, the total funds available to real estate companies decreased by 20% year-on-year, with personal mortgage loans down 34.9% [3][15]. - In September, the funds available to real estate companies showed a year-on-year decline of 18.4%, indicating ongoing pressure on cash flow despite some improvement in sales [3][15]. Investment Trends - Real estate development investment for the first nine months of 2024 decreased by 10.1% year-on-year, while new construction area saw a decline of 22.2% [4][18]. - The report indicates that the land market remains weak, with a significant drop in both supply and transaction volume for residential land in major cities [4][18][27]. Policy Impact - The report discusses recent government meetings that have opened up policy space to support the real estate market, particularly through measures aimed at promoting sales and stabilizing prices [7][27]. - The report suggests that the ongoing implementation of supportive policies is expected to lead to a fundamental turning point in the sector [7][27].