Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the vaccine industry, indicating a positive outlook for long-term growth driven by policy, demand, and technology factors [8][24]. Core Insights - The vaccine industry is currently under pressure due to high base effects, price declines of major products, and excess capacity. However, the long-term drivers remain intact, suggesting a favorable outlook for the sector [8][24]. - The report emphasizes the importance of product strength and overseas expansion capabilities for quality investment targets in the vaccine sector [8][24]. Market Performance - The vaccine sector saw a 0.62% increase last week, while the overall pharmaceutical sector rose by 1.04%. Year-to-date, the pharmaceutical sector has declined by 11.85%, with the vaccine sector experiencing a significant drop of 31.98% [4][10]. - The current PE (ttm) for the vaccine sector is 29.61X, with a PB (lf) of 2.16X, indicating a valuation premium of 127.79% compared to the CSI 300 index [5][10]. Industry Dynamics and Company Announcements - Zhifei Biological's application for a freeze-dried rabies vaccine has been accepted for production registration, highlighting ongoing innovation in the sector [6][19]. - The Shijiazhuang Pharmaceutical Group has initiated Phase I clinical trials for an mRNA vaccine targeting respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), showcasing advancements in vaccine technology [6][21]. - The National Medical Products Administration has launched a pilot program for segmented production reform in biological products, which may enhance industry standards and efficiency [6][22]. Investment Recommendations - Short-term focus should be on the third-quarter performance of the vaccine industry, while long-term investment should consider companies with strong technological advantages and robust product pipelines [8][24]. - The report suggests monitoring companies with strong overseas expansion capabilities, as the domestic market faces challenges from declining birth rates and increased competition [8][24].
疫苗行业周报:流感疫苗价格再降,关注竞争格局较好品种及三季报业绩
Xiangcai Securities·2024-10-21 10:10