Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for Pinduoduo (PDD US) with a target price adjusted to 124.62 [1][6]. Core Insights - The report highlights the implementation of a 10 billion RMB subsidy policy aimed at supporting merchants, which is expected to stabilize profit growth. The forecast for Q3 indicates a net profit of approximately 30.6 billion RMB, with a year-on-year growth rate of 80% [1]. - The report anticipates that both GMV and company profits will continue to grow at double-digit rates through 2025, despite a downward adjustment in revenue and profit forecasts for Q3 due to the subsidy policy [1][4]. - The financial projections for 2024 and 2025 show an expected adjusted net profit growth of 93% and 29%, respectively, with a focus on maintaining a stable monetization rate despite the subsidy initiatives [1][4]. Financial Projections - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 404.273 billion RMB, a decrease of 3.1% from previous estimates, while 2025 revenue is expected to be 538.332 billion RMB, down 3.8% [3]. - Adjusted net profit for 2024 is forecasted at 130.869 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.7% reduction from prior estimates, with a further increase to 168.736 billion RMB in 2025 [3][7]. - The gross profit margin is expected to be 64.3% in 2024, slightly down from previous estimates, while the adjusted operating profit margin is projected at 32.1% [3][7]. Market Performance - The stock has experienced a year-to-date decline of 14.82%, with a 52-week high of 89.17 [2][4]. - The average daily trading volume is reported at 11.90 million shares, indicating active market participation [2]. Strategic Initiatives - The report details several strategic initiatives under the subsidy policy, including reductions in service fees and promotional costs, aimed at enhancing merchant profitability and competitiveness [1][4]. - The anticipated performance of TEMU in the U.S. market is expected to reach breakeven by 2025, contributing positively to overall profitability [1].
拼多多：百亿减免扶持商家经营，利润稳健增长仍可期