Company Performance - PDD Holdings Inc. Sponsored ADR closed at $94.15, reflecting a +0.18% change from the previous trading day's close, underperforming the S&P 500's daily gain of 9.52% [1] - Over the past month, shares of PDD have decreased by 20.34%, which is worse than the Retail-Wholesale sector's loss of 13.14% and the S&P 500's loss of 13.47% [2] Upcoming Earnings - Analysts expect PDD to report earnings of $2.49 per share, indicating a year-over-year decline of 12.01%. Revenue is projected to be $14.17 billion, reflecting a 17.82% increase from the same quarter last year [3] - For the entire fiscal year, earnings are projected at $11.99 per share and revenue at $64.94 billion, representing increases of +5.92% and +18.74% respectively from the prior year [4] Analyst Estimates - Recent adjustments to analyst estimates for PDD are crucial as they indicate changing business trends. Upward revisions suggest analysts' optimism regarding the company's operations and profit generation [5] - The Zacks Rank system, which evaluates these estimate changes, currently ranks PDD at 3 (Hold), with a recent downward shift of 4.07% in the consensus EPS estimate [7] Valuation Metrics - PDD is trading at a Forward P/E ratio of 7.84, significantly lower than the industry average of 20.05, suggesting it is trading at a discount [8] - The company has a PEG ratio of 0.24, compared to the Internet - Commerce industry's average PEG ratio of 1.18, indicating a favorable valuation relative to expected earnings growth [9] Industry Context - The Internet - Commerce industry, part of the Retail-Wholesale sector, holds a Zacks Industry Rank of 51, placing it in the top 21% of over 250 industries [10]

海外公司报告 | 公司动态研究 拼多多（PDD） 证券研究报告 投资建议：考虑到电商行业竞争激烈，公司主站收入增速有所放 缓 ， 我 们 下 调 公 司 2025-2027 年 营 业 收 入 分 别 至 4702/5478/6250 亿元（25 年前值为 4771 亿元），同比增长 19%/17%/14%；我们预计 2025-2027 年 Non-GAAP 净利润 至 1380/1698/1969 亿元，同比增长 13%/23%/16%， 对应 3 月 27 日收盘价 PE 分别为 7X/6X/5X，维持"买入"评级。 风险提示：宏观经济不确定性；行业竞争加剧；主站收入增速放 缓，货币化率提升不及预期；海外业务开展不及预期；多多买菜业 务盈利进度不及预期；海外监管存在不确定性。 24Q4 业绩：收入稳健增长，看好公司长期发展 24Q4 业绩要点：收入端及利润端稳健增长 公司公布 24Q4 业绩。2024Q4 公司营业收入同比增长 24%至 1106 亿元；拆分来看，公司 24Q4 营销服务收入为 570 亿元，同 比增长 17%；交易服务收入同比增长 33%至 536 亿元，公司指出 Q4 营收增速放缓主要 ...

Group 1: Impact of Tariffs on China - The 54% tariffs imposed by the U.S. will significantly affect the Chinese economy, prompting companies like Nike to relocate production to countries with lower tariffs, such as Vietnam [4] - In 2024, U.S. imports from China totaled $438.9 billion, and the trade war could exacerbate weaknesses in the Chinese economy by increasing the cost of goods, impacting e-commerce operators like PDD Holdings [5] Group 2: PDD Holdings Overview - PDD Holdings generated $54 billion in revenue in 2024, with its gross merchandise volume (GMV) likely exceeding $5 billion in the U.S., driven by its low-cost platform Temu [7] - The company reported a 24% revenue growth in the fourth quarter, outperforming competitors like Alibaba and JD.com, and has a price-to-earnings ratio of just 11, indicating strong fundamentals [9] Group 3: Market Dynamics and Investor Behavior - U.S. investors, including billionaire David Tepper, have been rotating into Chinese stocks, viewing them as undervalued compared to U.S. counterparts, which could benefit PDD Holdings if U.S. tariffs lead to a recession [8] - PDD Holdings has made significant strides in the digital advertising market, increasing competition and market share against other e-commerce companies [6]

Core Insights - China's e-commerce landscape is rapidly evolving, with PDD Holdings and JD.com as dominant players, each with distinct business models [1][2] - Recent financial results from both companies indicate potential investment opportunities as China's economy stabilizes and consumer confidence improves [2] PDD Holdings - PDD Holdings reported a 24% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, reaching RMB 110.6 billion ($15.15 billion), and a full-year growth of 59% [4] - Transaction services revenues surged by 33% in Q4, showcasing strong monetization capabilities [4] - Non-GAAP operating profit increased by 14% to RMB 28 billion, with non-GAAP net income at RMB 29.9 billion [4] - Operating margin compressed to 24% in Q4 2024 from 28% in the previous year due to significant ecosystem investments [5] - Global expansion through Temu faces challenges, including increased competition and regulatory scrutiny, particularly in the U.S. [6] - Consensus earnings estimate for 2025 is $11.99 per share, reflecting a 5.92% growth from 2024, but has decreased by 1.8% over the past 30 days [7] JD.com - JD.com achieved a 13.4% year-over-year revenue growth in Q4 2024, totaling RMB 347 billion ($47.5 billion), with full-year revenues at RMB 1.16 trillion, up 6.8% [8][9] - JD Retail revenues grew by 14.7% in Q4, with electronics and home appliances increasing by 15.8% [9] - Operating margin for JD Retail improved to 3.3% in Q4 and 4.0% for the full year, with non-GAAP net income rising 36% year-over-year to RMB 47.8 billion [10] - JD's logistics capabilities and strategic expansion into on-demand retail enhance user engagement and create competitive advantages [11] - The company offers shareholder returns through a $1.0 annual dividend per ADS and a $5 billion share repurchase program [12] - Consensus earnings estimate for 2025 is $4.76 per share, indicating an 11.74% year-over-year growth [12] Price Performance and Valuation - PDD shares have declined by 3.2% over the past year, underperforming the Zacks Retail-Wholesale sector's growth of 16.2%, while JD shares have returned 52.8% [13][14] - JD trades at a forward P/E of 8.24x, significantly below the industry average of 19.25x, indicating it is undervalued [16] - PDD's forward P/E is 9.17x, reflecting market concerns about its growth strategy and potential volatility in revenue and profit performance [17] Investment Outlook - JD.com is positioned as the superior investment choice due to consistent margin expansion, strategic logistics investments, and diversified growth drivers [20] - JD's valuation discount and tangible shareholder returns create a compelling risk-reward profile, especially as China's consumption recovery gains momentum [20] - JD currently holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), while PDD has a Zacks Rank 3 (Hold) [21]

PDD Holdings (NASDAQ: PDD ), also known as Pinduoduo, reported better-than-expected earnings for its fourth fiscal quarter, but the e-Commerce platform missed on the top line. However, Pinduoduo is a leading e-Commerce franchise in China and benefits from strong adoption of the company's Temu-brandedAnalyst’s Disclosure: I/we have a beneficial long position in the shares of PDD, BABA, JD either through stock ownership, options, or other derivatives. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opini ...

PDD Holdings Inc. PDD, the parent company of Temu, is flirting with a bullish technical setup despite recent selling pressure. For investors, the potential golden cross sets up a critical test. A confirmed breakout could put PDD stock back in the spotlight, while failure to hold above key support levels could signal a return to choppy trading. PDD stock, at $120.45, sits just above its 200-day simple moving average (SMA) of $119.57, flashing a bullish signal. Additionally, the 50-day SMA stands at $118.08, ...

Group 1: Market Performance - Chinese stocks have outperformed U.S. stocks in 2025, with the SPDR S&P China ETF returning over 15% year-to-date compared to a nearly -2% return of the S&P 500 Index [1] - Pinduoduo (PDD) has provided a total return of over 32% for the year, with a 4% increase in shares following its Q4 earnings report [2] Group 2: Earnings Report Insights - PDD's Q4 sales growth was over 24%, which fell short of the expected 29% growth, while adjusted earnings per American Depositary Share (ADS) grew by 15%, exceeding expectations [3] - Revenue growth has significantly slowed from 123% in Q4 2023, with intensified competition in the Chinese e-commerce market being a key concern [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - PDD plans to reduce fees for merchants by 10 billion Chinese yuan to strengthen its merchant ecosystem, which may benefit the company long-term but could hurt near-term revenue and profitability [5] Group 4: Analyst Outlook - Analysts have updated their price targets for PDD, with an average target indicating a 15% upside from the closing price on March 24 [6] - The 12-month stock price forecast for PDD is $169.91, representing a 38.74% upside based on 14 analyst ratings [3] Group 5: Regulatory Environment - The potential elimination of the de minimis tariff exemption for Chinese goods could pose significant risks for PDD's U.S. operations, particularly for its low-cost platform Temu [7][9] - In 2024, 1.3 billion packages entered the U.S. through the de minimis exemption, with a significant portion coming from China, indicating that changes could affect 400 million to 500 million packages annually [10] Group 6: Competitive Landscape - PDD faces pressure from increased competition in the Chinese e-commerce market, which could impact its financial performance [12] - The merchant fee reduction program may further strain upcoming financial results, suggesting a cautious approach to investment in PDD at this time [13]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was 110.6 billion yuan, which was 4.7% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations, but the Non-GAAP net profit reached 29.85 billion yuan, exceeding expectations by 4.4% [4][6] - The online marketing services revenue was 57 billion yuan, up 17.1% year-on-year, while transaction services revenue was 53.6 billion yuan, up 33.3% year-on-year, but fell short of expectations by 9.6% [4][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing quality supply through initiatives like the "100 Billion Subsidy" program, which aims to support high-quality merchants and improve consumer experience [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported revenue of 393.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% and an adjusted net profit of 122.34 billion yuan, reflecting an 80.2% increase [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.47 billion yuan, 556.02 billion yuan, and 620.58 billion yuan, respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 15.2%, and 11.6% [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 135.84 billion yuan, 170.15 billion yuan, and 188.91 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.0%, 25.3%, and 11.0% [6][8] Business Segment Insights - The company is facing competitive pressure in its overseas business, particularly with Temu's performance in the U.S. being below expectations due to increased competition from platforms like Amazon [4][5] - The company is adapting to potential tariff impacts by promoting a semi-managed model for merchants to mitigate costs associated with U.S. tariffs [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - In Q4 2024, the company's revenue was 110.6 billion yuan (yoy +24%), which was 4.7% lower than Bloomberg consensus expectations, while the Non-GAAP net profit reached 29.85 billion yuan (yoy +17.2%), exceeding expectations by 4.4% [4][6] - The online marketing services revenue was 57 billion yuan (yoy +17.1%), aligning with expectations, while transaction services revenue was 53.6 billion yuan (yoy +33.3%), falling short of expectations by 9.6% [4][5] - The company is focusing on enhancing quality supply through initiatives like the "Hundred Billion Subsidy" program, which aims to support high-quality merchants and improve consumer experience [5][6] Financial Performance Summary - For 2024, the company reported total revenue of 393.84 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 56.4% and an adjusted net profit of 122.34 billion yuan, reflecting a growth of 80.2% [8] - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 482.47 billion yuan, 556.02 billion yuan, and 620.58 billion yuan, respectively, with expected year-on-year growth rates of 24.6%, 15.2%, and 11.6% [6][8] - Adjusted net profit forecasts for the same years are 135.84 billion yuan, 170.15 billion yuan, and 188.91 billion yuan, with growth rates of 11.0%, 25.3%, and 11.0% [6][8] Business Segment Insights - The company is facing competitive pressure in its overseas business, particularly with Temu's performance in the U.S. being below expectations due to increased competition from platforms like Amazon [4][5] - The company is adapting to potential tariff impacts by promoting a semi-managed model for merchants to mitigate costs associated with U.S. tariffs [4][5]

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform" [6][4]. Core Views - The company has shown better-than-expected profit performance, with a focus on sustainable platform ecosystem development despite lower-than-expected revenue growth. The revenue for the quarter was 110.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 24%, with advertising revenue at 57 billion yuan (yoy +17%) and payment channel revenue at 53.6 billion yuan (yoy +33%) [2][10]. - The company is actively investing in its platform ecosystem, which is expected to yield long-term benefits. Short-term revenue growth has slowed due to initiatives aimed at high-quality development, including a 10 billion yuan fee reduction plan that has helped over 10 million merchants improve operational efficiency [2][10]. - The company is expanding its international presence through TEMU, which has entered over 60 countries, and is adapting its business model to mitigate overseas policy uncertainties [3][11]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company's non-GAAP net profit for the quarter was 29.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 14%, with a non-GAAP net profit margin of 25%. The gross margin was 57%, down 4 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to the company covering shipping costs in western regions and a decline in the proportion of high-margin commissions [3][11]. - The total expenses for the quarter were 34% of revenue, a decrease of 1.7 percentage points year-on-year, with sales expenses down to 28.3% [3][11]. Future Outlook - The company expects growth to improve in the second half of 2025 as the impacts of platform ecosystem investments and national subsidies are digested, alongside a recovery in domestic consumption. Revenue forecasts for 2025-2027 are 480.3 billion, 593.5 billion, and 676.6 billion yuan, representing year-on-year growth of 22%, 24%, and 14% respectively [4][5]. - The projected non-GAAP net profits for the same period are 130.2 billion, 163.2 billion, and 185.7 billion yuan, with corresponding year-on-year growth rates of 7%, 25%, and 14% [4][5].