格隆汇1月2日｜百度涨超12%，网易涨超6%，蔚来涨超5%，新东方、万国数据、金山云、阿里巴巴涨 超4%，哔哩哔哩涨超3%，理想汽车、小马智行、富途、台积电、京东、晶科能源、贝壳、拼多多、腾 讯音乐、爱奇艺、霸王茶姬涨超2%。 ...

编者荐语： 头部还是头部，后面的开始分化。 以下文章来源于定焦One ，作者定焦One团队 定焦One . 深度影响创新。 2025年已经过去，站在2026年的开端回望，过去一年，中国互联网巨头，过得怎么样？ 人工智能从技术走向产业落地、平台经济告别粗放扩张，资本市场重新审视增长质量与盈利确定性。中国 互联网巨头们虽未经历激烈洗牌，但在市值、盈利能力与战略方向上开始出现分化。 我们以"市值"为标尺，梳理出2025年末中国互联网领域市值TOP10的企业，并与2024年末的排名进行对比。 | 排名 | 公司 | 市值 | 股价变化 | 名次变化 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | | | (亿美元) | (2025年以来) | | | 1 | 腾讯 | 7287 | 上涨45% | 不变 | | 2 | 阿里 | 3516 | 上涨77% | 不变 | | 3 | 拼多多 | 1616 | 上涨17% | 不变 | | 4 | 小米 | 1315 | 上涨14% | +1 | | 5 | 网易 | 889 | 上涨62% | +1 | | 6 | 美团 | 811 | 下跌32 ...

①美国三大股指全线收跌，道指跌0.63%报48063.29点，标普500指数跌0.74%报6845.5点，纳指跌0.76% 报23241.99点； ⑧伦敦基本金属多数下跌，LME期锡跌3.54%报40470.0美元/吨，LME期铜跌0.49%报12496.5美元/吨， LME期镍跌0.46%报16750.0美元/吨，LME期铅跌0.22%报2005.5美元/吨，LME期铝涨0.57%报2997.0美 元/吨，LME期锌涨0.06%报3126.0美元/吨； ②热门中概股普跌，阿里巴巴跌0.52%，拼多多跌0.39%，网易跌2.01%，携程跌0.57%，百度跌1.30%， 京东跌0.03%； ⑨美债收益率集体上涨，2年期美债收益率涨2.67个基点报3.475%，3年期美债收益率涨3.65个基点报 3.536%，5年期美债收益率涨5.19个基点报3.725%，10年期美债收益率涨5.49个基点报4.175%，30年期 美债收益率涨4.67个基点报4.852%； ③大型科技股集体下跌，蔚来跌超7%，网易跌2%，百度跌超1%；哔哩哔哩微涨； ⑩英国10年期国债收益率跌2.3个基点报4.473%。 ④欧洲主要股指收盘小幅 ...

1月1日热门中概股普跌，纳斯达克中国金龙指数（HXC）收跌1.13%。 上涨股当中（按市值从高到低），台积电涨1.45%，日月光半导体涨0.44%，华住酒店集团涨0.15%，哔 哩哔哩涨0.16%。 下跌股当中（按市值从高到低），阿里巴巴跌0.52%，拼多多跌0.39%，网易跌2.01%，携程跌0.57%， 百度跌1.30%，京东跌0.03%，中华电信跌0.17%，腾讯音乐跌0.74%，富途控股跌0.64%，联电跌 1.32%，小鹏汽车跌4.65%，贝壳跌0.57%，理想汽车跌1.97%，中通跌1.07%，蔚来跌7.27%，满帮跌 2.01%，中国新城农村跌0.22%，BOSS直聘跌0.34%，唯品会跌1.83%，新东方跌0.90%。 美股周三小幅收低。标普500指数录得连续第四个交易日下滑。三大股指在2025年均录得涨幅，其中标 普500指数上涨16.4%。 道指跌303.77点，跌幅为0.63%，报48063.29点；纳指跌177.09点，跌幅为0.76%，报23241.99点；标普 500指数跌50.74点，跌幅为0.74%，报6845.50点。 标普500指数录得连续第四个交易日下跌。尽管如此，该指数 ...

Investment Rating - The report recommends investment in Alibaba, Meituan, Pinduoduo, and JD.com, indicating a positive outlook for these companies in the e-commerce sector [4]. Core Insights - Online consumption continues to grow steadily, with a total retail sales of 45.6 trillion yuan in the first 11 months of 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 4.0%. The online retail sales reached 14.5 trillion yuan, up 9.1% year-on-year, with physical goods online retail sales growing by 5.7% to 11.8 trillion yuan, resulting in a penetration rate increase of 0.42 percentage points to 25.9% [1][12]. - The impact of the "old-for-new" policy from the previous year is starting to show, leading to a high base effect that is affecting growth rates. The express delivery business volume reached 180.74 billion pieces, a year-on-year increase of 14.9%, but this growth is slowing compared to the previous half of the year [1][12]. - The competition in the instant retail sector has peaked, with platforms shifting their strategies towards differentiation to improve user experience (UE). The report notes that the industry is entering a new phase of competition, focusing on quality and efficiency rather than just price competition [3][47]. Summary by Sections 1. Online Consumption and Retail Performance - Online consumption remains robust, with significant growth in penetration rates. The high base effect from last year's policies is now impacting growth rates, leading to a slowdown in the growth of express delivery and online retail sales [1][12]. - Major platforms are adjusting their strategies in response to the high base effect, with JD.com experiencing a notable decrease in GMV growth rates in Q3 [1][17]. 2. AI Investment and Development - The AI sector is witnessing intensified competition, with major internet companies launching numerous updates and iterations of AI models. The focus is shifting from broad capabilities to specialized strengths, enhancing user experience and application in consumer-facing products [3][34]. - Alibaba's cloud business is accelerating, with AI-related product revenues achieving triple-digit year-on-year growth for nine consecutive quarters, indicating a successful transition from technology investment to value realization [3][34]. 3. Instant Retail Sector Dynamics - The instant retail sector has seen a peak in competition, with platforms initially investing heavily to capture market share. However, as the market stabilizes, strategies are shifting towards differentiation and quality improvement [3][47]. - The report highlights that platforms like Meituan and Taobao are focusing on enhancing user experience and profitability, moving away from aggressive subsidy strategies [3][47]. 4. Performance of Major E-commerce Platforms - Alibaba's core business revenue growth remains strong, while Meituan's local business is under pressure. JD.com and Pinduoduo are expected to see profit recovery in the upcoming quarters, driven by strategic investments and operational efficiencies [3][4]. - The report notes that the profitability of platforms is becoming increasingly differentiated, with expectations for Alibaba and Meituan to see profit recovery soon [4].

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855, down 0.86% for the day but up 28.89% year-to-date[1] - The Hang Seng Technology Index rose 1.74% to 5,578, with a year-to-date increase of 24.85%[1] - The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index increased by 1.12% to 8,991, with a year-to-date rise of 23.34%[1] Sector Performance - Baidu's stock surged nearly 9% due to advancements in AI and smart cloud business, with significant growth in its self-developed AI chip and smart driving orders[7] - The semiconductor sector saw strong gains, with InnoTek rising over 15% and SMIC up more than 4% following Nvidia's announcement of partnerships for a new power architecture[7] - Robotics stocks were active, with Yujing Technology up over 13% and Sanhua Intelligent Control up over 12%, supported by a significant increase in industrial robot production[7] Oil and Entertainment - Oil stocks continued to perform well, with CNOOC rising nearly 4% as international oil prices increased due to geopolitical tensions[7] - The entertainment sector saw a boost, with Emperor Culture Industries rising nearly 9% as the 2025 New Year box office surpassed 5.3 billion yuan, a near eight-year high[7] Economic Indicators - The WTI crude oil price surpassed $58 per barrel, while Brent crude approached $62 per barrel, driven by rising geopolitical risks[7] - The US Federal Reserve indicated potential future interest rate cuts if inflation continues to decline, as noted in the December meeting minutes[11]

Market Overview - A-shares experienced a slight upward trend, with the Shanghai Composite Index closing at 3,965 points, while the Shenzhen Component and ChiNext Index rose by 0.49% and 0.63% respectively, with a total market turnover of 2.16 trillion yuan[13] - The Hang Seng Index increased by 0.86%, driven by technology and semiconductor sectors, while the Hang Seng Tech Index surged by 1.74%[9] - European markets showed strength, with the Stoxx 600 index rising by 0.6%, and several markets reaching new highs despite geopolitical uncertainties[7] Economic Policies - The Chinese government announced a 625 billion yuan special bond issuance to support the "old for new" consumption policy for 2026, aiming for a retail sales growth rate of approximately 3.2%[4] - The Federal Reserve's meeting minutes revealed internal divisions regarding future interest rate cuts, with a majority favoring further reductions, although uncertainty remains[28] Commodity and Currency Movements - Silver rebounded strongly, rising over 10% after experiencing its largest single-day drop in over five years, while copper prices extended their gains for eight consecutive days, marking the longest streak since 2017[25] - The U.S. dollar index increased by 0.2% to 98.24, while the euro appreciated by 13.5% year-to-date against the dollar[24] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on AI-driven companies in the internet sector, with recommendations including Alibaba (BABA US), Pinduoduo (PDD US), and Bilibili (BILI US) as potential investment opportunities[6] - In the banking sector, the report highlights the potential for profit growth of around 5% in 2026, recommending stocks like China Merchants Bank (600036 CH) and China Construction Bank (601939 CH) for their valuation recovery potential[11]

Core Insights - Pinduoduo's recent shareholder meeting revealed significant changes, including the introduction of a co-chairman system with Zhao Jiazhen and Chen Lei as co-CEOs, and a strategic focus on enhancing the Chinese supply chain while aiming to create a new Pinduoduo that emphasizes quality and ecosystem [3][4] - Temu has rapidly grown to become one of the largest e-commerce platforms globally, achieving a GMV of 168 billion with a 42% year-on-year increase, and a monthly active user base of 530 million [5][7] Group 1: Strategic Shifts - The shareholder meeting indicated a shift from merely building an e-commerce platform to investing in supply chains and co-creating industry ecosystems, which could significantly impact the Chinese e-commerce sector [4] - Pinduoduo's management expressed ambitions to "recreate Pinduoduo" over the next three years, focusing on leveraging the supply chain to enhance product quality and market reach [3][12] Group 2: Temu's Business Model - Temu's "full management + semi-management" model has set a new standard in cross-border e-commerce, allowing factories to take center stage and reducing intermediary costs while enhancing quality control [7][9] - The model is tailored to connect China's mature supply chain with global consumer markets, facilitating rapid production and distribution [11][18] Group 3: Support for Industry Transformation - Pinduoduo's "New Quality Merchant Support Plan" aims to provide substantial resources for industry transformation, including a 10 billion yuan fund to support merchants in various sectors [12][14] - The plan is designed to empower merchants to transition from low-margin OEM models to developing their own brands, thereby increasing their control over high-value segments [18][20] Group 4: Market Dynamics and Consumer Insights - Pinduoduo's approach focuses on providing certainty to producers by aligning production with consumer demand, thus enabling factories to adopt a more responsive production strategy [20][21] - The platform's data-driven insights have helped merchants identify market opportunities, leading to significant sales growth and brand development [17][21] Group 5: Competitive Landscape - The shift in focus from traffic acquisition to supply chain efficiency distinguishes Pinduoduo from other e-commerce platforms, positioning it to better respond to market demands and provide stability to industry players [24]

近日，Temu在Shopify应用商城，上线了一款面向独立站卖家的应用。 通过该应用，Shopify卖家可以将自己独立站的产品，一键上架到Temu上，并通过"本地卖家计划"，向Temu用户销售产品。目前，Temu的本地卖家计划 已经覆盖美国、加拿大、英国等30多个国家和地区。 Temu此举实属无奈。在美国、巴西、南非等取消小额包裹免税政策之后，欧盟、日本也加入这一行列之中，使Temu"拼供应链红利"的模式难以为继，故 而将Shopify卖家整合进来，以弥补自己在多个市场商品结构单一、本地化供应不足的缺陷。 对此，Shopify独立站卖家反应不一。有卖家乐见Temu提供了一个新的可能，而一些卖家更倾向于将Temu视为一个"清库存渠道"。 "我把一部分SKU当'走量款'放Temu，上面卖得动，就当多一个销售渠道，"一位独立站卖家表示。 Shopify卖家是一个庞大而颇具影响力的电商从业群体。2024年，Shopify卖家的销售额达到了2922.8亿美元。截至2025年前三季度，Shopify约有266.583万 个活跃店铺，其中约38.7%来自美国。 Shopify本土卖家以及一批布局了海外仓的中国独立站卖家，成 ...

Core Viewpoint - Pinduoduo is at a critical turning point in its ten-year journey, shifting from a traffic-driven model to a focus on deepening its supply chain capabilities, aiming to "recreate another Pinduoduo" in the next three years [1][2] Group 1: Strategic Shift - The new strategy emphasizes a comprehensive commitment to the Chinese supply chain, moving from merely selling products to building brands and deeply embedding within the supply chain [1][2] - Pinduoduo's overseas business, Temu, has rapidly expanded, achieving in three years what took Pinduoduo a decade in the domestic market, highlighting the need for new growth points [1][4] - The management recognizes that sustainable profitability requires a shift from merely outputting capacity to delivering products and brands [5] Group 2: Supply Chain Empowerment - Temu's initial success overseas relied on cost advantages from the Chinese supply chain, but it now aims for a value leap by deeply embedding and empowering the supply chain [2][4] - Pinduoduo is restructuring its growth logic around the supply chain, focusing on long-term value creation and global risk resilience [2][4] Group 3: Brand Building - The transition from "selling goods" to "building brands" is crucial, with Pinduoduo pushing merchants to enhance product quality and brand recognition [3][5] - Examples like the paper towel brand Sipiao demonstrate how Pinduoduo helps brands elevate their market positioning and product quality [7][11] Group 4: Industry Collaboration - Pinduoduo's strategy involves not just individual brand empowerment but also a broader industry collaboration to drive transformation across domestic industrial clusters [9][14] - Initiatives like "hundred billion subsidies" and "new quality supply" aim to support merchants in upgrading their offerings and overcoming homogenization challenges [9][14] Group 5: Compliance and Quality - As Pinduoduo expands its supply chain globally, it faces increasing compliance challenges, necessitating a shift from a price-driven growth model to one focused on quality and compliance [14][15] - The company is building a digital compliance system to monitor and ensure product quality and regulatory adherence across the supply chain [15][16] Group 6: Future Outlook - The ultimate goal of Pinduoduo's supply chain strategy is to create a sustainable and legally compliant operational foundation, ensuring long-term consumer retention through reliable quality and brand trust [15][16] - This strategic pivot reflects a broader trend in the Chinese e-commerce and manufacturing sectors towards high-quality development [16]