Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained at "Overweight" [21][22]. Core Insights - September heavy truck sales were disappointing, with a total of 57,700 units sold, representing a year-on-year decline of 32.67% and a month-on-month decline of 7.59%. Cumulatively, from January to September, sales reached 682,700 units, down 3.38% year-on-year [4][5]. - The heavy truck market is experiencing weak terminal demand, with the freight market remaining sluggish. The old-for-new policy has not yet significantly boosted sales, leading to a negative growth rate for cumulative sales in the first three quarters [4][5]. - In September, the sales figures for major manufacturers included approximately 15,000 units for China National Heavy Duty Truck, 12,000 units for Shaanxi Automobile, and 8,000 units for FAW Jiefang, with respective year-on-year changes of -30%, -15%, and -59% [4][5]. Summary by Sections Heavy Truck Sales Data Tracking - Heavy truck sales in September were 57,700 units, down 32.67% year-on-year and 7.59% month-on-month. The cumulative sales from January to September were 682,700 units, down 3.38% year-on-year [4][5]. - The sales performance of major manufacturers in September included: China National Heavy Duty Truck (15,000 units, -30% YoY), Shaanxi Automobile (12,000 units, -15% YoY), and FAW Jiefang (8,000 units, -59% YoY) [4][5]. Market Dynamics - The export performance of heavy trucks remained stable, with September export volumes showing little change year-on-year. However, gas heavy truck sales plummeted to 5,900 units, down 74.39% year-on-year and 51.23% month-on-month, marking four consecutive months of decline [5]. - The economic advantages of gas heavy trucks have diminished due to high natural gas prices, which have remained elevated, impacting sales negatively [5]. Future Outlook - There is an expectation for improved domestic demand in Q4, potentially boosting freight market demand. The old-for-new policy is anticipated to stimulate sales in the coming months, leading to a possible rebound in Q4 sales [6]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as China National Heavy Duty Truck, Weichai Power, and FAW Jiefang for potential investment opportunities [7].
重卡销量点评:整体销量平淡,燃气重卡销量滑坡,新能源重卡持续高增
Shanghai Securities·2024-10-21 11:08