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9月社零报告专题：9月社零同增3.2%，关注双十一表现
Donghai Securities·2024-10-21 11:08

Investment Rating - The industry is rated as "Market Perform" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [37]. Core Insights - In September 2024, the total retail sales of consumer goods reached 41,112 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 3.2%, exceeding the consensus expectation of 2.3% [5][6]. - Both urban and rural markets showed growth, with rural sales growth outpacing urban sales due to rising incomes and ongoing development of county-level commercial systems [5][6]. - Online consumption growth outpaced offline consumption, with online retail sales of goods and services growing by 8.6% and 7.9% year-on-year, respectively [6][7]. Summary by Sections Overall Retail Performance - The retail sales in September 2024 showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, with urban retail sales at 35,044 billion yuan (3.1% growth) and rural retail sales at 6,068 billion yuan (3.9% growth) [5][6]. Category Performance - Both dining and retail sales increased year-on-year, with dining services totaling 4,417 billion yuan (3.1% growth) and retail sales reaching 36,695 billion yuan (3.3% growth) [11][17]. - Essential consumption categories showed stable growth, with food and daily necessities performing well, while optional categories saw a narrowing of decline [13][17]. Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.4% year-on-year, while the Producer Price Index (PPI) fell by 2.8%, leading to a widening gap between PPI and CPI [19][23]. Employment Situation - The urban survey unemployment rate in September 2024 was 5.1%, a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points from the previous month [28][30]. Investment Recommendations - There is an expectation for demand recovery in the dining and alcohol sectors, with a focus on high-end liquor and regional leaders. The upcoming Double Eleven shopping festival is anticipated to boost performance in the cosmetics sector, with specific companies recommended for attention [35].