金属及金属新材料行业投资策略周报：金价续创新高

Investment Rating - The industry rating for the metal and metal new materials sector is "Buy" [1][2]. Core Views - Base Metals: The Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts are expected to lead to a rebound in base metal prices. With concerns about overseas recession easing and domestic demand supported by policies and pre-holiday stocking, supply remains tight, particularly with ongoing copper inventory depletion [1]. - Steel: Demand is declining, leading to lower steel prices and costs, with weak profit recovery. Economic stabilization policies are anticipated to support sector valuations, but short-term demand weakness should be monitored [1]. - Precious Metals: Continued expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts, combined with geopolitical risk aversion, have driven gold prices to new highs. Current economic indicators suggest a peak in U.S. economic expectations, with geopolitical tensions and upcoming elections likely to sustain gold price increases [1]. - Energy Metals: Lithium prices are expected to have further downside potential due to oversupply expectations. The market's transition from a high to a low inventory cycle suggests continued price declines [1]. - Minor Metals: Prices for tungsten and molybdenum have seen slight increases, with expectations of stable prices in the short term. The rare earth industry is experiencing a shift in demand, with limited supply growth expected to maintain high price levels [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry Performance - From October 14 to October 18, the Shenwan Industrial Metal Index rose by 1.37%, while the Precious Metal Index increased by 5.41% [8][10]. 2. Metal Prices - Basic Metals: LME copper price decreased by 1.84% to $9,622.50/ton, LME aluminum down by 0.93% to $2,613.50/ton, and LME zinc down by 2.12% to $3,089.00/ton [23]. - Steel: The price of rebar fell by 3.18% to ¥3,840.00/ton, while iron ore dropped by 3.61% to ¥760.50/ton [23]. - Precious Metals: COMEX gold rose by 2.33% to $2,736.40/oz, and SHFE gold increased by 3.63% to ¥619.06/g [23]. - Energy Metals: Battery-grade lithium carbonate price fell by 3.66% to ¥73,700/ton [23]. - Minor Metals: Prices for black tungsten increased by 0.72% to ¥140,600/ton, while molybdenum rose by 1.34% to ¥3,785/ton [23]. 3. Macroeconomic Overview - The report indicates that macroeconomic conditions are stabilizing, which may influence demand and pricing in the metals sector [1].