医药行业2024年10月投资月报：持续看好医药行情

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the pharmaceutical sector for the second half of 2024, focusing on undervalued stocks, overseas expansion, and essential hospital needs as the main investment themes [2][3]. Core Viewpoints - The pharmaceutical index underperformed the CSI 300 index by 24.3 percentage points from January to September 2024, with a year-to-date decline of 7.18%. However, in September 2024, the index rebounded with a 21.34% increase, slightly outperforming the CSI 300 by 0.38 percentage points [2][7]. - Key financial policies announced in September, including a 0.5% reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and a 0.2% cut in policy interest rates, are expected to boost market confidence and support the pharmaceutical sector [2][35]. - The report emphasizes three main investment directions: high-dividend OTC stocks, medical devices for overseas markets, and essential hospital needs post-medical corruption reforms [2][3]. Summary by Sections 1. Pharmaceutical Sector and Portfolio Performance Review - From January to September 2024, the pharmaceutical index fell by 7.18%, ranking 29th among industries. In September, it rose by 21.34%, ranking 18th [7][9]. - The raw material drug sector saw the highest cumulative increase of 3.0%, while offline pharmacies experienced the largest decline of 28.8% [9]. - The hospital sector had the highest increase in September at 44.7%, while blood products had the smallest increase at 7.1% [9]. 2. Industry Policies - The report outlines several key policy announcements, including the release of clinical trial guidelines for human fibrinogen and the initiation of centralized procurement for high-value medical consumables [40][41]. - The report highlights the impact of the 2023 National Medical Insurance Drug List, which added 126 new drugs, with a high negotiation success rate for innovative drugs [43]. 3. Investment Strategies and Portfolio Recommendations - The report recommends a diversified portfolio including stocks like Betta Pharmaceuticals, Sino Medical, and Shanghai Raist [3]. - It suggests a stable portfolio with companies like Hengrui Medicine and Xinchuang Technology, focusing on long-term growth potential [3]. 4. Market Valuation - As of September 30, 2024, the pharmaceutical sector's price-to-earnings ratio (PE) was 28 times, below the ten-year median, indicating potential undervaluation [23][28]. - The report notes that the hospital sub-sector had the highest PE at 46 times, while pharmaceutical distribution had the lowest at 17 times [28].