Zijin Mining(601899) KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2024-10-21 14:30Investment Rating - The investment rating for Zijin Mining is maintained as "Buy" [2][3]. Core Views - The company reported a robust performance in Q3 2024, with a year-on-year increase in net profit attributable to shareholders of 58.17% [3]. - The revenue for Q3 2024 reached 799.80 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.11% year-on-year growth and a 5.74% quarter-on-quarter increase [3]. - The company has adjusted its profit forecasts for 2024-2026, expecting net profits of 327.8 billion yuan, 397.8 billion yuan, and 445.9 billion yuan respectively [3]. - The acquisition of the Akyem gold mine project in Ghana for 1 billion USD is expected to enhance the company's resource reserves and support future production targets [5]. Financial Performance Summary - In Q3 2024, the copper production increased by 3.39% year-on-year to 270,900 tons, while gold production rose by 6.24% to 188.6 tons [4]. - The average selling price of copper decreased by 9.38% quarter-on-quarter, while the selling prices of gold and zinc increased by 4.91% and 10.84% respectively [4]. - The operating cash flow for Q3 2024 was 156.62 billion yuan, up 61.54% year-on-year [3]. - The company’s total revenue is projected to grow from 270.33 billion yuan in 2022 to 413.22 billion yuan in 2026, with a compound annual growth rate of approximately 5.9% [6]. Production and Cost Analysis - The sales cost of copper decreased by 4.59% year-on-year in Q3 2024, while the sales cost of gold increased by 1.56% year-on-year [4]. - The company’s gross margin is expected to improve from 15.7% in 2022 to 20.6% in 2026 [6]. Future Outlook - The company is optimistic about maintaining high price levels for copper and gold, with expectations of stable production from key mines [3]. - The acquisition of the Akyem gold mine is anticipated to further enhance the company's production capabilities and resource base [5].