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Investment Rating - The report upgrades TPG RE Finance Trust (TRTX) to Overweight from Neutral, indicating a positive outlook due to a de-risked portfolio and significant discount to book value [3][11]. Core Insights - The report highlights a positive outlook for Residential Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (MREITs) as they are expected to benefit from falling interest rates and potential spread tightening, while caution remains for Commercial MREITs due to elevated credit risks [12][13]. - Residential MREITs are positioned to see immediate benefits from lower rates, with a positive duration gap that could enhance book value, although prepayment risks are increasing [2][12]. - Commercial MREITs are expected to experience a slower recovery, facing challenges with troubled loans and non-accruals, which may keep valuations under pressure [2][13]. Summary by Sections Rating Changes - TRTX has significantly de-risked its portfolio, achieving a 100% performing status, and is trading at a discount to book value, leading to an upgrade to Overweight [3][11]. Sector Summary - Residential MREITs are viewed positively due to their long-duration assets and potential for income from dividend yields, while Commercial MREITs face a cautious outlook with risks outweighing potential value [12][13]. Coverage Summary - AGNC maintains an Overweight rating as it is expected to recover book value with a focus on Agency MBS, while NLY also maintains Overweight due to favorable positioning for lower rates [14][15]. - TWO is rated Neutral due to lingering uncertainty affecting its price-to-book value multiple, while ABR is rated Underweight due to a premium to book value amidst a deteriorating credit environment [18][19]. Company Previews – Residential MREITs - AGNC reported a tangible book value per share (TBVPS) of $9.48, exceeding consensus estimates, and faces elevated prepayment risk due to its high-coupon MBS concentration [41][42]. - NLY also reported a TBVPS of $21.00, benefiting from spread tightening, and is expected to maintain a mid-teens dividend yield supported by levered returns on Agency MBS [43][44].