铝行业周报：铝价高位震荡，氧化铝仍然强势

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the aluminum industry [2][14]. Core Views - The aluminum industry is experiencing a combination of policy support and improving demand, leading to a sustained decrease in aluminum ingot inventory. However, attention should be paid to potential fluctuations in future demand [14]. - The supply of bauxite remains tight, influenced by seasonal weather conditions in Guinea, which is driving up domestic and international alumina prices. Companies with integrated operations are expected to benefit significantly [14]. - Long-term, the aluminum industry is projected to maintain high profitability due to limited supply growth and ongoing demand increases [14]. Summary by Sections Key Companies and Earnings Forecast - China Hongqiao (1378.HK): Current price 12.27, 2024E EPS 2.12, 2025E EPS 2.25, PE 5.8, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - Tianshan Aluminum (002532.SZ): Current price 8.15, 2024E EPS 0.91, 2025E EPS 0.97, PE 9.0, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - China Aluminum (601600.SH): Current price 8.55, 2024E EPS 0.77, 2025E EPS 0.86, PE 10.0, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - Shenhuo Co. (000933.SZ): Current price 18.42, 2024E EPS 2.16, 2025E EPS 2.56, PE 7.2, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. - Yunnan Aluminum (000807.SZ): Current price 14.42, 2024E EPS 1.41, 2025E EPS 1.59, PE 9.0, Investment Rating: Buy [7]. Market Performance - The non-ferrous metals sector has shown a performance of 21.1% over the last month, 3.3% over three months, and 9.2% over twelve months, compared to the CSI 300's performance of 23.8%, 11.5%, and 8.7% respectively [5]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - Domestic electrolytic aluminum production capacity remains stable, with average production costs rising to approximately 18,734 RMB/ton, reflecting a week-on-week increase of 658 RMB/ton. The average profit for the industry is around 2,026 RMB/ton, down by 408 RMB/ton from the previous week [10]. - The demand from downstream aluminum processing enterprises is stable, but there are signs of declining new orders as existing orders are consumed [10]. - The social inventory of aluminum rods has decreased by 0.84 million tons week-on-week, indicating a tightening supply situation [10]. Price Trends - As of October 18, the average price of alumina is 4,607 RMB/ton, up by 366 RMB/ton week-on-week, and up 54.3% year-on-year [31]. - The average price of electrolytic aluminum on the Shanghai Futures Exchange is 20,640 RMB/ton, down 185 RMB/ton week-on-week, but up 9.9% year-on-year [22]. Production Data - The weekly production of electrolytic aluminum is reported at 836,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.4% [48]. - The weekly production of alumina is reported at 1,641,000 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 4.1% [48].