Europe and Central Asia Macro Poverty Outlook

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry or countries analyzed. Core Insights - Economic growth in Albania is projected to remain robust at 3.3 percent in 2024, driven by private consumption, tourism, and construction [6][11] - Armenia's economy expanded by 6.5 percent in H1 2024, with growth expected to moderate to around 4.5 percent in the medium term [13][21] - Azerbaijan's growth rose to 4.3 percent in H1 2024, supported by the non-hydrocarbon sector, but is expected to hover around 2.5 percent in the medium term due to declining oil production [24][30] Summary by Sections Albania - The GDP for Albania in 2023 was reported at 23.0 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 8,300.4 USD [6] - The international poverty rate stands at 11.3 percent, while the upper middle-income poverty rate is at 34.2 percent [6] - Key challenges include a declining population, poor labor quality, and rising fiscal pressures [7] - The employment rate reached 66.7 percent by the end of 2023, with a poverty rate decline to 21.7 percent [8][10] - Inflation averaged around 2.7 percent in Q1 2024, with a fiscal surplus reported as of July 2024 [10][11] Armenia - Armenia's GDP in 2023 was 24.1 billion USD, with a GDP per capita of 8,053.0 USD [13] - The international poverty rate is not specified, but the upper middle-income poverty rate is at 51.3 percent [13] - The economy has shown resilience with a 10.5 percent average annual growth rate in 2022-2023, but growth is expected to slow due to reduced net exports [14] - The unemployment rate rose to 15.5 percent in Q1 2024, influenced by refugee inflows [15] - Inflation fell to 0.3 percent deflation during January-July 2024, prompting a reduction in the policy rate [15][20] Azerbaijan - Azerbaijan's GDP in 2023 was not specified, but the GDP per capita was reported at 7,134.4 USD [24] - The economy's reliance on hydrocarbons poses a vulnerability, with growth driven by the non-hydrocarbon sector [25] - The fiscal balance recorded a surplus of 10.3 percent of GDP in H1 2024, although hydrocarbon revenues fell [26] - Inflation decreased to 1.1 percent in June 2024, with a cut in the policy rate to support economic stability [26][30] - The trade surplus narrowed to 11.5 percent of GDP in H1 2024, with exports declining due to lower oil prices [29]