South Asia Macro Poverty Outlook

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry analyzed Core Insights - The economic outlook for Afghanistan remains subdued with high downside risks due to persistent deflation, trade deficits, and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [6][7][12] - Bangladesh's real GDP growth is projected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25, driven by subdued investment and industrial growth [16][21] - Bhutan's economic growth is expected to rise to 7.2 percent in FY24/25, supported by new hydropower plants and tourism recovery [24][30] - India's economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, reflecting strong growth in manufacturing and construction [32][35] Summary by Sections Afghanistan - Economic growth of 2.7 percent in FY2023-24, recovering from a 27 percent contraction [6] - Key challenges include high poverty rates (48.3 percent), a growing trade deficit (13.5 percent of GDP), and restrictive laws affecting women's rights [7][12] - Projected GDP growth of 2.75 percent annually from 2024 to 2026, with poverty remaining above 40 percent [13][14] Bangladesh - Real GDP growth expected to slow from 5.2 percent in FY24 to 4.0 percent in FY25 due to subdued investment [16][21] - Extreme poverty projected to increase to 7.0 percent in FY25, affecting an additional 1.7 million people [22] - Current account deficit improved to US$6.5 billion (1.4 percent of GDP) in FY24 [18] Bhutan - Economic growth rose to 5.3 percent in FY23/24, projected to increase further due to hydropower and tourism [24][30] - Current account deficit expected to improve with increased exports from hydropower and tourism [24] - 19 percent of the population remains vulnerable to falling into poverty [25] India - Economy expanded by 8.2 percent in FY23/24, driven by manufacturing and construction [32][35] - High rates of youth unemployment and low rates of paid employment for women remain concerns [33] - Inflation slowed to 5.4 percent in FY23/24, but food price inflation remains high and volatile [35]