CIMC(SZ:000039) Soochow Securities·2024-10-21 23:30Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [1] Core Views - The company is expected to benefit from a recovery in container demand, with a significant increase in net profit forecasted for Q3 2024, aligning with expectations [3] - The container segment is supported by both inventory updates and a recovery in global trade growth, with projected industry production exceeding 4.5 million TEU in 2024 [4] - The offshore engineering segment is experiencing a cyclical recovery, with a substantial increase in orders and expected profitability [5] Financial Forecasts and Valuation - The company’s total revenue is projected to increase from 127.8 billion yuan in 2023 to 140.8 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 10.17% [2] - The net profit attributable to the parent company is forecasted to rise dramatically from 4.21 billion yuan in 2023 to 24.71 billion yuan in 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 486.57% [2] - The earnings per share (EPS) is expected to improve from 0.08 yuan in 2023 to 0.46 yuan in 2024 [2] - The current market valuation corresponds to a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 18.05 for 2024, decreasing to 9.38 by 2026 [2] Key Drivers - The significant growth in net profit is attributed to increased demand in the container industry, a recovery in offshore business, and improved foreign exchange hedging strategies [3] - The company holds a stable market share of over 40% in the container segment, which is expected to continue contributing to stable profits [4] - The offshore engineering business is projected to become a core contributor to future performance, with a backlog of orders amounting to 6.2 billion USD, a 21% increase year-on-year [5]