煤炭行业周报：煤炭板块短期承压，冬储或成为关键因素

Investment Rating - The industry rating is optimistic [1][42][45] Core Viewpoints - The coal sector is currently under short-term pressure, but winter storage may become a key factor for recovery [1][42] - The demand for thermal coal is expected to increase significantly with the onset of cold weather and the gradual commencement of winter storage by power plants, potentially leading to a rebound in prices [3][42] - Coking coal prices have shown slight recovery due to seasonal demand, but the support for sustained price increases remains weak due to insufficient terminal demand [3][20] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The coal industry has performed poorly recently, ranking at the bottom among 31 sectors, with a weekly decline of 0.91% [5] - The overall market indices, such as the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300, saw increases of 1.36% and 0.98% respectively [5] Thermal Coal - Thermal coal prices are currently experiencing low-level fluctuations due to seasonal impacts, with prices in major production areas showing declines [7] - The average price for Inner Mongolia's thermal coal (Q5500) is 665 CNY/ton, down 10 CNY/ton week-on-week [7] - The demand side is expected to strengthen as power plants enter the winter storage phase, which may lead to a price increase [10][42] Coking Coal - Coking coal prices have seen a slight uptick, but the overall demand remains weak, particularly in the real estate sector, which is affecting terminal demand [20][21] - The average price for Shanxi's coking coal is reported at 960 CNY/ton, unchanged week-on-week [21] Shipping Situation - Shipping capacity has decreased, with an average of 71 vessels at anchor in the Bohai Rim ports, down 9 vessels week-on-week [33] - Shipping rates have shown volatility, with overall trends indicating an increase despite low demand [33] Industry News - The cost of imported thermal coal has risen due to currency fluctuations, yet it still holds a price advantage over domestic coal [36] - Eight coal industry companies have made it to the 2024 list of China's top 500 private enterprises [36] - The production of raw coal in China for the first nine months of 2024 reached 3.48 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 0.6% [38]