Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Outperform the Market" indicating that the overall return of the industry is expected to exceed the market benchmark index by more than 5% in the next 6 to 12 months [10] Core Insights - In September, the working hours of excavators in China increased by 6.9% year-on-year, reflecting a significant recovery in downstream demand supported by proactive fiscal policies [3] - The sales of various types of excavators reached 15,831 units in September, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%, with domestic sales up by 21.5% [3] - The average working hours for major construction machinery products in September was 90 hours, with an operating rate of 64.2%, indicating a positive trend in utilization [3] - The central bank's recent monetary policy adjustments, including a reduction in reserve requirements and interest rates, are expected to enhance corporate financing and lower credit costs for residents [3] - The domestic demand is anticipated to improve due to equipment upgrades and environmental policies, while overseas demand is also expected to grow as Chinese companies expand into international markets [4][5] Summary by Sections Domestic Demand - The domestic sales of excavators in the first half of 2024 reached 53,000 units, a year-on-year increase of 4.66%, while exports decreased by 13.8% [4] - The industry is expected to see a shift towards equipment upgrades driven by environmental regulations and subsidy policies, with a gradual release of replacement demand anticipated after 2025 [4] International Demand - In the first half of 2024, the export value of construction machinery and parts from China was $25.837 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 3.38% [4] - The global market size is three times that of the domestic market, with a stable competitive landscape dominated by major players like Caterpillar and Komatsu [4] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies such as Sany Heavy Industry, XCMG, Zoomlion, LiuGong, and Shantui, as domestic demand continues to recover and exports turn positive [5]
工程机械行业动态跟踪:9月中国区域挖掘机开工小时数同比增长6.9%,积极财政政策支撑工程机械需求
Huafu Securities·2024-10-22 00:30