宏观周报：美国零售消费偏强，国内等待基本面拐点

Group 1: Overseas Macro - In September, US retail sales increased by 0.4% month-on-month, exceeding expectations of 0.3%[2] - Year-on-year, US retail sales recorded a growth of 1.7%, down from 2.2% in the previous month[2] - The US dollar index reached a peak of 103.8, while the 10-year Treasury yield surpassed 4.10%[1] - The European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates by 25 basis points, marking the third cut this year, shifting focus from anti-inflation to stabilizing the economy[3] Group 2: Domestic Macro - China's GDP growth for Q3 was 4.6%, slightly above the market expectation of 4.5%[4] - The GDP deflator recorded a year-on-year decrease of -0.8%, indicating easing deflationary pressures[4] - In September, retail sales in China grew by 3.2% year-on-year, surpassing the expected 2.5%[4] - Fixed asset investment in September showed a cumulative year-on-year growth of 3.4%, slightly above the expected 3.3%[8] Group 3: Real Estate and Investment - In September, the sales area of commercial housing in China was 96.82 million square meters, the lowest for the same period since 2010, with a year-on-year decline of -10.8%[8] - The proportion of private investment in fixed assets fell to a record low of 50.4%, indicating weakened confidence in the private sector[8]