Market Analysis - Domestic market sentiment continues to improve due to significant policy shifts, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and policy interest rates[3] - The 1-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) was lowered by 25 basis points to 3.1%, down from 3.35%, while the 5-year LPR decreased to 3.6% from 3.85%[3][6] - The recent LPR adjustments represent a cumulative reduction of 121 basis points for the 1-year LPR since the reform in August 2019[6] Commodity Insights - Precious metals are recommended for buying on dips, while other commodities are viewed neutrally[2] - The black and non-ferrous metals sectors are expected to be supported by policy sentiment, with industrial products dependent on fiscal expansion[4] - Oil prices are under pressure due to geopolitical factors, with a long-term bearish outlook on crude oil driven by increased OPEC production and accelerated energy transition[4] Economic Indicators - The U.S. dollar index has rebounded, influenced by stronger-than-expected non-farm payroll data and anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve[3] - Historical analysis indicates that during U.S. rate-cutting cycles, commodities generally face downward pressure, but gold tends to yield positive returns[3] Risks - Key risks include geopolitical tensions affecting energy prices, unexpected global economic downturns, and potential tightening by the Federal Reserve[5]
宏观大类日报：10月LPR再调降 市场情绪受提振
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2024-10-22 01:02