9月经济数据分析：“两新”政策开始见效

Economic Growth - In Q3 2024, China's real GDP growth rate was 4.6%, down from 5.3% in Q2 and 4.7% in Q1[10] - Nominal GDP growth remained stable at 4.0% in Q3, consistent with Q2[10] - The GDP deflator narrowed its decline to -0.6% in Q3, compared to -1.1% in Q2[10] Income and Consumption - Per capita disposable income grew by 4.9% in the first three quarters, outpacing the real GDP growth rate[12] - Retail sales in September showed a year-on-year increase of 3.2%, rebounding from 2.1% in August[14] - The unemployment rate decreased to 5.1% in September from 5.3% in August[14] Investment Trends - Fixed asset investment growth ended a declining trend, with a 3.4% year-on-year increase in the first nine months[23] - Infrastructure investment rose to 9.3% in September, up from 6.7% in May[23] - Real estate development investment saw a cumulative decline of 10.1% in the first nine months[23] Industrial Performance - Industrial value-added growth rebounded to 5.4% year-on-year in September, with high-tech industries growing over 10%[26] - The manufacturing sector showed varied performance, with pharmaceutical manufacturing accelerating to 11.0%[26] - The service sector's production index increased by 5.1% year-on-year in September, although IT services saw a slight decline[26] Policy Implications - The "Two New" policy aimed at large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement is beginning to show effects, with a target of 25% growth in investment by 2027[6] - Risks include potential changes in counter-cyclical adjustment policies and delays in real estate policy impacts[37]