中国民航2024冬航季换季展望：总量稳定结构优化，保障供需继续恢复

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aviation industry, consistent with the previous rating [3][4]. Core Insights - The total flight plan for the 2024 winter season is stable, with a slight year-on-year decrease of 0.6%, ensuring continued recovery of supply and demand [4][5]. - Domestic airlines are reducing domestic flights while increasing international flights, which helps to address the issue of capacity mismatch and supports the recovery of profitability for airlines [5][6]. - The report suggests a contrarian investment strategy during the off-peak season, as the long-term demand for air travel in China remains significant, and the recovery of supply and demand is expected to exceed market expectations [5][6]. Summary by Sections Domestic Flight Plans - The new winter season will see a 1% year-on-year decrease in domestic flight plans, with major airlines reducing domestic flights by 3% [5][8]. - The reduction in domestic flights is primarily due to the conversion of domestic slots to international routes and a decrease in flights to third and fourth-tier cities [5][8]. International Flight Plans - International flight plans are expected to increase by 5% year-on-year, with a stable number of flights compared to the summer season of 2024 [5][8]. - Domestic airlines are increasing flights to Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, Australia, and Europe, while foreign airlines are reducing flights, indicating a strategic shift to manage excess capacity [5][8]. Investment Strategy - The report emphasizes the potential for significant upside in the aviation sector, recommending a contrarian approach during the off-peak season [5][6]. - Airlines such as China Eastern Airlines, China Southern Airlines, Air China, Spring Airlines, and Juneyao Airlines are highlighted as having "Overweight" ratings [5][6].