公用事业行业2024年第42周周报：发电行业碳配额方案落地，9月火电风电出力高增

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the utility sector is "Positive" (maintained) [2] Core Insights - The new carbon quota allocation scheme is beneficial for efficient, low-coal-consumption power units, aligning with the dual carbon strategy and promoting green transformation [3][11] - In September, there was a significant increase in electricity generation from thermal and wind power, with thermal power generation growing by 8.9% year-on-year [4][20] - The carbon market is expected to tighten, with an estimated industry shortfall of 2-7 million tons in 2023, leading to a net carbon expenditure of approximately 5 billion yuan [3][17] Summary by Sections Carbon Emission Quota Tightening - The new carbon quota allocation scheme encourages large-scale, high-efficiency, low-emission units to participate in the market, enhancing market liquidity [3][11] - The carbon market is transitioning from surplus to a shortfall, with a projected shortfall of 2-7 million tons for 2023 [3][17] September Energy Production Data - In September, the production of raw coal reached 410 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.4% [4][20] - Electricity generation in September increased by 6%, with thermal power and wind power showing significant growth [4][20] - Wind power generation surged by 31.6% year-on-year, primarily due to favorable wind conditions and a low base from the previous year [31] Company Valuation - Companies such as Guodian Power, China Resources Power, and State Power Investment are recommended for their high utilization hours and low coal consumption [5][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of investment quality and shareholder returns in the current energy landscape, particularly for state-owned enterprises [5][33]