电子行业专题报告：晶圆代工龙头台积电上调24年营收预期3%，AI需求坚挺

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry, specifically highlighting TSMC's strong performance and outlook driven by AI demand [1]. Core Insights - TSMC raised its 2024 revenue forecast by 3%, driven by robust AI demand, with a projected revenue of approximately $896.9 billion, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 29.4% [19]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for mobile and AI products, which significantly contributed to TSMC's Q3 revenue of $23.5 billion, exceeding guidance [9][10]. - The semiconductor industry (excluding memory) is expected to grow at a rate of 10% year-on-year in 2024, as per TSMC's maintained forecast [23]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Summary - TSMC's Q3 revenue increased by 12.9% quarter-on-quarter, reaching $23.5 billion, primarily due to strong demand for smartphones and AI-related products [9]. - The gross margin for Q3 was 57.8%, up 4.6 percentage points from the previous quarter, significantly exceeding guidance [10]. - Revenue from high-performance computing (HPC) and smartphones grew by 11% and 16% respectively in Q3 [12]. Q4 2024 Outlook - TSMC projects Q4 revenue to be between $26.1 billion and $26.9 billion, with a midpoint of $26.5 billion, indicating a quarter-on-quarter increase of 12.8% [17]. - The gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 57.0% and 59.0%, with a midpoint of 58.0%, reflecting a slight increase from Q3 [18]. 2024 Industry Outlook - The report indicates that AI-related demand will continue to drive TSMC's revenue, leading to a 3% upward revision in the 2024 revenue forecast [19]. - TSMC's capital expenditure (CAPEX) for 2024 is projected to be slightly above $30 billion, with significant investments in advanced processes [21]. Global Semiconductor Assessment - TSMC maintains its forecast for a 10% year-on-year growth in the global semiconductor market (excluding memory) for 2024 [23]. - The report notes a strong recovery in smartphone and PC demand, with global smartphone shipments increasing by 11% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 [23]. AI-Driven Semiconductor Cycle - The report highlights the emergence of AI-driven demand in the semiconductor sector, suggesting a focus on undervalued leading companies within the AI supply chain [26]. - Companies such as Luxshare Precision and Jiangbolong are identified as key players benefiting from the AI trend [26][27].