Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for key companies in the food and beverage industry, particularly in the liquor and seasoning sectors [5]. Core Insights - The liquor industry is experiencing increased concentration, with the top 14 listed liquor companies accounting for 51.8% of revenue and 91.3% of profit in 2023, reflecting a significant increase from previous years [8][19]. - The Sichuan liquor market is robust, with a production share of 51.9% of the national total in 2022, and a revenue of 344.7 billion CNY, indicating strong growth potential driven by economic development and population influx [19][21]. - Grassroots research in Chengdu reveals challenges in sales performance, with expectations lowered for holiday sales and significant pressure from online channels affecting traditional retail [24][26]. - The seasoning market shows signs of improvement, with leading brands performing well and sales dynamics improving in September, particularly for soy sauce and hot pot base products [27][30]. Summary by Sections 1. Liquor Industry Tracking - The liquor industry's revenue and profit concentration is increasing, with a notable "Matthew Effect" where top companies are gaining market share [8]. - In Q3 2024, major listed liquor companies are expected to achieve revenue of 985.9 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 7.6%, indicating a strategic shift towards rational growth [8][14]. 2. Chengdu Liquor Market & Grassroots Research - Chengdu's liquor market is valued at approximately 28 billion CNY, benefiting from economic growth and population influx [21]. - Grassroots research indicates that sales are under pressure, with expectations for holiday sales being lowered and significant impacts from online retail channels [24][26]. 3. Chengdu Seasoning Research - The basic seasoning market shows improved sales dynamics, with leading brands like Hai Tian and Li Jin Ji performing strongly [27]. - The compound seasoning segment is entering a peak season, with sales improving in September, particularly for hot pot base products [30]. 4. Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The report suggests that after a four-year adjustment period, the liquor sector is poised for recovery, supported by policy initiatives and economic improvement [5]. - Key recommendations include major liquor brands such as Guizhou Moutai, Wuliangye, and Luzhou Laojiao, as well as popular consumer goods like Tianwei Foods and Yanjing Beer [3][5].
食品饮料行业专题研究:四川白酒&调味品市场跟踪:淡季调整,静待拐点
GF SECURITIES·2024-10-22 02:44