跨资产观察周报：黄金与美元缘何同涨？

Gold and Dollar Movement - Gold and the US dollar have risen simultaneously since October 9, with the dollar index increasing by approximately 0.5% to 103.46, while spot gold broke through $2,712 per ounce, marking a weekly gain of 2.4% and reaching a new historical high [1][8] - Historically, gold and the dollar have a negative correlation, but their simultaneous rise often reflects complex global economic conditions and market sentiment shifts [1][8] - Three factors explain this phenomenon: cooling expectations of rate cuts, geopolitical tensions, and the resurgence of Trump-related trading dynamics [10] Market Expectations and Economic Data - Market expectations for rate cuts have cooled, with the probability of a 25 basis point cut in November rising to over 90%, down from earlier expectations of a 50 basis point cut [11][12] - Strong US economic data, including a 0.4% increase in September retail sales and a 25.4k rise in non-farm payrolls, have supported the dollar's strength [11] - In China, industrial output grew by 5.4% year-on-year in September, up from 4.5% in August, contributing to a 4.6% GDP growth in Q3 [18][19] Geopolitical and Political Factors - Geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East, have driven demand for safe-haven assets, leading to simultaneous rises in gold and the dollar [14] - Trump's resurgence in key swing states has bolstered market confidence in the dollar, with his economic advisors signaling support for a strong dollar policy [15] Asset Performance and Market Trends - The CSI 300 index rose, while 10-year bond yields slightly declined, reflecting a stock-bond divergence [16] - Bonds remain the optimal asset class, but short-term momentum favors stocks, particularly in the tech, brokerage, and consumer sectors [2][16] - Commodities and RMB assets traded on a different logic compared to stocks and bonds, with Chinese commodities falling and the RMB depreciating [16] Financial Policy and Market Sentiment - The 2024 Financial Street Forum emphasized the importance of price stability and the use of interest rate tools, with further RRR cuts expected by year-end [20] - The forum also highlighted the need for policy consistency across fiscal, industrial, and regulatory frameworks, signaling potential inter-ministerial coordination [20] Cross-Asset Analysis and Correlations - A-share indices and 10-year US Treasuries show a weakening negative correlation, while the CSI 300 and RMB movements are largely independent [31] - Commodities like gold and oil exhibit negative correlations with equities, reflecting their role as safe-haven assets [31] Sector and Industry Performance - The tech, brokerage, and consumer sectors are recommended based on KST and Coppock indicators, with strong momentum in the short term [16] - Non-banking financials, electronics, and computers show significant deviations from their 200-day moving averages, indicating potential overvaluation [63] Market Sentiment and Technical Indicators - Market sentiment has stabilized, with VIX positions declining and gold positions increasing, reflecting ongoing economic uncertainty [36] - The CSI 300's short-term KST and Coppock indicators suggest a potential shift in market momentum, warranting close monitoring [45]