森麒麟：Q3销量创新高，产品结构变化及退税带来盈利持续提升

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company [7]. Core Views - The company achieved a record high in sales for Q3, with revenue of 6.34 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 10.4%, and a net profit of 1.726 billion yuan, up 73.7% year-on-year. The growth in profit is attributed to tax refunds and increased sales volume [7][8]. - The demand for semi-steel tires remains strong, with production and sales continuing to grow. The company's profitability has improved due to changes in product structure and tax refunds. The company produced 24.24 million tires in the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year increase of 14.05% [8]. - The company is expanding its production capacity, particularly with the upcoming launch of a high-performance tire project in Morocco, which is expected to enhance its high-end offerings and mitigate trade barriers [9]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For Q3 2024, the company reported revenue of 2.23 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.13% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 11.8%. The net profit for the same period was 648 million yuan, up 67.5% year-on-year and 13.0% quarter-on-quarter [7][8]. - The gross margin improved by 11.08 percentage points to 35.45% due to increased sales volume and favorable product mix, despite rising raw material costs [8]. Production and Sales - The company produced 8.16 million tires in Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 5.6% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 1.8%. The sales volume reached 8.26 million tires, up 3.6% year-on-year and 10.3% quarter-on-quarter [8]. - The production capacity is currently a limiting factor for further growth, necessitating expansion efforts [8]. Future Outlook - The company forecasts net profits of approximately 2.31 billion yuan, 2.46 billion yuan, and 2.81 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding price-to-earnings ratios of about 11, 11, and 9 [9].