终端补库需求支撑，下游市场情绪较好

Investment Rating - The investment ratings for the coal sector include "Buy" for Guanghui Energy and Huaibei Mining, and "Hold" for China Shenhua, Shaanxi Coal, and Zhongmei Energy, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [1][5]. Core Insights - The report highlights that terminal replenishment demand supports a favorable sentiment in the downstream market, with coal prices entering a rebound phase after bottoming out [2][5]. - The coal supply is expected to contract due to safety production policies, while the demand for electricity coal remains stable, particularly with a recovery in non-electric demand, especially from the chemical sector [5][11]. Monthly Coal Market Performance - The coal sector index increased by 14.65% in September, underperforming the broader market indices [8][10]. - Notable performers in the coal sector include Dayou Energy (+30.08%), Anyuan Coal Industry (+25.67%), and Shanghai Energy (+25.53%) [10]. Monthly Coal Supply and Demand - In September, national raw coal production reached 414 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with an average daily production of 13.82 million tons, reflecting an 8.0% month-on-month increase [11][15]. - Coal imports for September were 47.59 million tons, up 12.9% year-on-year, with cumulative imports for the first nine months at 389 million tons, a growth of 11.9% [15]. Monthly Coal Prices - The report notes a divergence in international energy prices, with the market coal price and long-term contract price gap widening. The Qinhuangdao port price for 5500 kcal thermal coal was 697 RMB/ton, down 2 RMB/ton month-on-month [25][27]. Monthly Coal Transportation and Inventory - Coal transportation via the Daqin line decreased by 10.74% year-on-year in September, with cumulative transport for the first nine months down 9.14% [28]. - Coal enterprise inventories showed a month-on-month decline, indicating tighter supply conditions [28].