晶圆代工龙头台积电上调24年营收预期3%，AI需求坚挺

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the semiconductor industry, specifically highlighting TSMC's strong performance and outlook driven by AI demand [1]. Core Insights - TSMC raised its 2024 revenue forecast by 3%, driven by robust AI demand, with Q3 revenue reaching $23.5 billion, exceeding guidance [1][9]. - The report emphasizes the strong demand for mobile and AI products, which significantly contributed to TSMC's Q3 revenue growth of 12.9% quarter-over-quarter [9][10]. - TSMC's gross margin for Q3 was 57.8%, surpassing guidance due to high capacity utilization and cost improvements [10][12]. - The report projects a 35.1% quarter-over-quarter revenue increase for Q4, with a revenue guidance range of $26.1 billion to $26.9 billion [17][18]. - TSMC expects a 10% year-over-year growth in the global semiconductor market (excluding memory) for 2024 [23]. Summary by Sections Q3 2024 Summary - Revenue: TSMC's Q3 revenue was $23.5 billion, a 12.9% increase quarter-over-quarter, driven by strong demand for mobile and AI products [9][10]. - Gross Margin: The gross margin for Q3 was 57.8%, a 4.6 percentage point increase from the previous quarter, significantly exceeding guidance [10][12]. - Downstream Performance: Revenue from high-performance computing (HPC) and mobile sectors increased by 11% and 16% respectively in Q3 [12][14]. - Process Technology: Advanced process technology contributed 69% of revenue in Q3, with 3nm revenue share increasing to 20% [14][15]. Q4 2024 Outlook - Revenue Guidance: TSMC's Q4 revenue guidance is set at a midpoint of $26.5 billion, reflecting a 12.8% increase quarter-over-quarter [17][18]. - Gross Margin Guidance: The gross margin for Q4 is expected to be between 57.0% and 59.0%, with a midpoint of 58.0% [18]. 2024 Industry Outlook - Revenue Adjustment: TSMC has adjusted its 2024 revenue forecast upwards by 3%, anticipating a total revenue of approximately $89.69 billion, representing a year-over-year growth of 29.4% [19][21]. - Capital Expenditure: TSMC's capital expenditure for 2024 is projected to be slightly above $30 billion, with a significant increase expected in Q4 [21]. Global Semiconductor Market Assessment - Market Growth: TSMC maintains its forecast for a 10% year-over-year growth in the global semiconductor market (excluding memory) for 2024 [23]. - Smartphone and PC Demand: Global smartphone shipments in Q3 were approximately 316 million units, a 4% year-over-year increase, while PC shipments were 68.8 million units, reflecting a 6% quarter-over-quarter increase [23]. AI-Driven Semiconductor Cycle - AI Demand: The report highlights the emergence of AI-driven demand in the semiconductor sector, with a focus on companies involved in the AI supply chain [26][27]. - Recovery in Consumer Electronics: There is a moderate recovery in smartphone and PC demand, with a focus on undervalued leading companies in the semiconductor space [27].