ZHESHANG SECURITIES·2024-10-22 05:23Investment Rating - The investment rating for China Mobile is "Buy" and is maintained [8] Core Views - The company's performance meets expectations with significant improvement in cash flow [1] - Revenue for the first three quarters of 2024 reached 791.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 2.0%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 110.9 billion yuan, up 5.1% year-on-year [2] - The company is focusing on customer retention and expansion in the personal market, with mobile ARPU expected to stabilize [3] - The family market shows growth in both volume and price, with broadband users increasing to 314 million [3] - The company is investing in cloud computing, AI, and big data, which are expected to benefit from the digital economy [3] Financial Performance Summary - Operating revenue for the first three quarters was 791.5 billion yuan, with a net profit margin of 14.0%, an increase of 0.4 percentage points year-on-year [2] - EBITDA for the same period was 263.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 2.0% year-on-year, with an EBITDA margin of 33.2% [2] - Operating expenses for the first three quarters were 672.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, with effective cost control measures in place [4] - Operating cash flow improved significantly, reaching 224.1 billion yuan, with a reduced decline compared to the first half of the year [5] Credit Impairment and Losses - Credit impairment losses for the first three quarters amounted to 18.07 billion yuan, an increase of 44.5% year-on-year, but the growth rate has been declining [6] Earnings Forecast and Valuation - Revenue growth is projected at 2.9%, 2.8%, and 2.8% for 2024-2026, with net profit growth at 5.0%, 4.9%, and 4.9% respectively [7]