Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" with a maintained outlook [1][11]. Core Viewpoints - The export data for the power equipment and new energy industry in September showed pressure, with a wait-and-see approach for subsequent demand recovery [1]. - The overall export performance was weak, with September exports of components at 14.4 billion RMB, a month-on-month decrease of 17% and a year-on-year decrease of 41%. Cumulative exports from January to September reached 175.5 billion RMB, down 30% year-on-year [1]. - Inverters saw September exports of 4.8 billion RMB, a month-on-month decrease of 21% but a year-on-year increase of 4%. Cumulative exports for the first nine months were 45 billion RMB, down 21% year-on-year [1]. - Transformers had September exports of 4.5 billion RMB, a month-on-month increase of 8% and a year-on-year increase of 21%. Cumulative exports from January to September reached 33.2 billion RMB, up 27% year-on-year [1]. - The weather factors and interest rate cut expectations have suppressed short-term demand activation, with fluctuations in inverter demand in Europe and a slow recovery in Latin America [1]. - The global new energy development trend remains stable, awaiting subsequent demand recovery, with expectations of interest rate cuts likely to enhance the profitability of photovoltaic and power equipment projects [1]. Summary by Relevant Sections Export Trends - September exports of components were 14.4 billion RMB, down 17% month-on-month and down 41% year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to September were 175.5 billion RMB, down 30% year-on-year [1]. - Inverters had September exports of 4.8 billion RMB, down 21% month-on-month but up 4% year-on-year. Cumulative exports for the first nine months were 45 billion RMB, down 21% year-on-year [1]. - Transformers saw September exports of 4.5 billion RMB, up 8% month-on-month and up 21% year-on-year. Cumulative exports from January to September reached 33.2 billion RMB, up 27% year-on-year [1]. - Weather factors and interest rate cut expectations have led to a wait-and-see attitude regarding demand, impacting export data [1]. Industry Outlook - The global new energy development trend is stable, with expectations of demand recovery as weather impacts are removed and interest rate cuts are anticipated [1]. - The industry is optimistic about the recovery of overseas demand for photovoltaic and power equipment, as well as long-term growth potential [1].
9月电新出口数据承压,静待后续需求复苏
Orient Securities·2024-10-22 06:03