2024年三季度我国宏观经济形势分析及展望：一揽子增量政策效果初现，四季度经济有望小幅提升

Economic Overview - In Q3 2024, China's GDP grew by 4.6% year-on-year and 0.9% quarter-on-quarter, with a cumulative GDP growth of 4.8% for the first three quarters[1] - The growth rates for the primary, secondary, and tertiary industries in Q3 were 3.4%, 5.4%, and 4.7% respectively, indicating strong performance in high-tech manufacturing and modern services[1] - Consumer recovery remains insufficient, with real estate market stabilization being a major drag on economic growth[1] Consumption Trends - From January to September 2024, retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.3% year-on-year, with September showing a month-on-month growth of 0.39%[3] - In September, urban retail sales grew by 3.1%, and home appliance retail sales surged by 20.5%, marking the highest monthly growth since April 2021[3] - Online retail sales increased by 8.6%, with physical goods online sales accounting for 25.7% of total retail sales[3] Investment Insights - Fixed asset investment rose by 3.4% year-on-year from January to September, with manufacturing investment growing by 9.2%[4] - Infrastructure investment increased by 4.1%, supported by accelerated issuance of special bonds[4] - Real estate investment declined by 10.1%, prompting multiple policy adjustments to stabilize the sector[4] Trade Performance - Total foreign trade value exceeded 32 trillion yuan in the first three quarters, up 5.3% year-on-year[5] - Exports of mechanical and electrical products grew by 8%, constituting 59.3% of total exports[5] - Private enterprises accounted for 55% of total foreign trade, with a growth rate of 9.4%[5] Inflation and Price Stability - CPI rose by 0.3% year-on-year in the first three quarters, with food prices down by 1.2%[6] - PPI decreased by 2.0% year-on-year, with a notable decline of 2.8% in September due to weak demand in certain industries[6] Policy Outlook - The government has introduced a "package of incremental policies" to enhance counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on expanding consumption and supporting the real economy[7] - Monetary policy measures include potential further reductions in reserve requirements and interest rates to stimulate economic growth[11] - Fiscal policy aims to increase government debt and support local governments in addressing hidden debt issues, with expectations of significant new bond issuance[11]