中国平安2024三季报点评：资产端驱动业绩高增，NBV增长好于预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by the asset side, with the New Business Value (NBV) growth exceeding expectations, achieving 35.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 119.18 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, with underwriting and investment service performance growing by 5.7% and 221% respectively, slightly better than expectations [4][5]. - The report predicts NBV growth rates for 2024-2026 to be 24.4%, 12.8%, and 9.4% respectively, corresponding to a group Embedded Value (EV) growth of 6.4%, 3.4%, and 2.0% [4][5]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 152.7 billion, 151.5 billion, and 162.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant increase in the equity market [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the NBV margin increased by 7.3 percentage points to 25.4%, driven by improvements in product structure and a decrease in the preset interest rate [4][5]. - The company’s core business operating profit for the first three quarters was 113.82 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, with life insurance, property insurance, and banking showing growth rates of 3.3%, 39.7%, and 0.2% respectively [4][5]. Business Segments - The individual insurance channel saw a year-on-year NBV increase of 31.6%, with agent productivity improving significantly [4][5]. - The contribution from the bancassurance and community finance channels reached 18.8% of total NBV, with bancassurance channel NBV growing by 68.5% [4][5]. Investment Performance - The investment services segment reported a revenue of 83.6 billion yuan for the first three quarters, a year-on-year increase of 221%, with net investment returns at 3.8% [4][5]. - The overall investment portfolio exceeded 5.32 trillion yuan, reflecting a 12.7% increase since the beginning of the year [4][5].