房地产行业土地市场2024年1-3季度总结：土地市场降温持续，投资策略维持谨慎

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the real estate industry, indicating a cautious investment strategy due to ongoing market cooling in the land sector [1][35]. Core Insights - The land market in 2024 is experiencing a continued decline, with a year-on-year decrease in land premium rates and transaction prices across all major cities [1][3]. - The total land supply in the first quarter of 2024 decreased by 24.31% year-on-year, with the average transaction price per square meter falling by 15.62% [3][20]. - The report highlights a general downward trend in land supply and demand across first, second, and third/fourth-tier cities, with significant declines in transaction volumes and prices [1][15]. Summary by Sections Land Market Overview - In the first quarter of 2024, the total land area released across all tracked cities was 7.50 billion square meters, a decrease of 24.31% year-on-year [1][20]. - The average transaction price for land in the same period was 2850 yuan per square meter, down 15.62% from the previous year [3][20]. City Tier Analysis - First-tier cities saw a land supply decrease of 48.28% year-on-year, with an average transaction price increase of 3.89% to 22958 yuan per square meter [6][20]. - Second-tier cities experienced a 30.16% drop in land supply, with an average transaction price of 4839 yuan per square meter, down 21.76% year-on-year [10][20]. - Third and fourth-tier cities had a land supply decrease of 21.89%, with an average transaction price of 1663 yuan per square meter, down 7.97% [11][20]. Developer Investment Trends - The first-tier developers' total land investment in the first quarter of 2024 was 818.10 billion yuan, a significant decline of 71.08% year-on-year [23][25]. - The second-tier developers' land investment totaled 1586.57 billion yuan, down 53.54% year-on-year [25][30]. - The third-tier developers' land investment was 185.01 billion yuan, reflecting a 25.05% decrease year-on-year [30][31]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on high-quality companies that are expected to stand out in the current market environment. Recommended companies include Vanke A, Poly Developments, and China Overseas Development among others [1][35].