中国平安：2024三季报点评：资产端驱动业绩高增，NBV增长好于预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2][4]. Core Views - The company's performance is driven by the asset side, with the New Business Value (NBV) growth exceeding expectations, achieving 35.16 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.1%. The net profit attributable to shareholders reached 119.18 billion yuan, up 36.1% year-on-year, with underwriting and investment service performance growing by 5.7% and 221% respectively, slightly better than expectations [4][5]. - The report predicts NBV growth rates for 2024-2026 to be 24.4%, 12.8%, and 9.4% respectively, corresponding to a group Embedded Value (EV) growth of 6.4%, 3.4%, and 2.0% [4][5]. - The report adjusts the net profit forecast for 2024-2026 to 152.7 billion, 151.5 billion, and 162.8 billion yuan respectively, reflecting a significant increase due to a recovery in equity markets [4][5]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the NBV margin increased by 7.3 percentage points to 25.4%, driven by improvements in product structure and a decrease in the preset interest rate [4]. - The company reported a total service income from property and casualty insurance of 246 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 4.5%, with a significant profit increase in the third quarter [4][5]. - Investment service performance reached 83.6 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 221%, with net investment returns at 3.8% [4][5]. Business Segments - The individual insurance channel saw a year-on-year NBV increase of 31.6%, with agent productivity improving significantly [4]. - The contribution from bancassurance and community finance channels increased, with bancassurance NBV growing by 68.5% year-on-year [4]. - The report highlights the continuous growth in the medical and pension sectors, with a 3.8% increase in personal customer numbers [4][5]. Valuation Metrics - The current price-to-embedded value (P/EV) ratios for 2024-2026 are projected at 0.6, 0.5, and 0.5 respectively, indicating a favorable valuation outlook [4][5]. - The report notes a current dividend yield of 4.25% [4].