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中国平安:2024年三季报点评:NBV提速增长,投资驱动Q3净利润翻倍

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Strong Buy" rating for the company, with a target price of 69.7 CNY, compared to the current price of 56.90 CNY [1]. Core Insights - The company achieved a significant increase in net profit in Q3, with a year-on-year growth of 151.3%, driven by a recovery in new business value (NBV) and improved investment returns [1]. - The new business value for the life insurance segment reached 352 billion CNY in the first three quarters of 2024, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 34.1% [1]. - The property insurance segment showed stable growth, with a combined ratio (COR) of 97.8%, a decrease of 1.5 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved profitability [1]. - The investment portfolio of the company saw an annualized comprehensive investment return of 5.0%, an increase of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year, benefiting from a recovery in the equity market [1]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - For the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported a total operating profit of 113.8 billion CNY, a year-on-year increase of 5.5%, and a net profit of 119.2 billion CNY, up 36.1% year-on-year [1]. - The life insurance segment's new business value increased by 34.1% year-on-year, while the property insurance segment's service revenue rose by 4.5% year-on-year [1][2]. Business Segments - The life insurance segment's new business value rate improved by 5.7 percentage points to 31.0%, supported by product structure enhancements and adjustments in preset interest rates [1]. - The property insurance segment's COR improved due to a significant reduction in losses from credit insurance [1]. Investment Strategy - The company's investment portfolio grew to over 5.32 trillion CNY, a 12.7% increase from the beginning of the year, with a focus on controlling investment risk exposure [1]. - The annualized net investment return was 3.8%, slightly down by 0.2 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to a decline in long-term interest rates [1]. Future Outlook - The report projects EPS for 2024-2026 to be 6.9, 7.5, and 8.0 CNY respectively, with an expected price-to-earnings value (PEV) of 0.8 times in 2025 [1].