造纸轻工行业周报：以旧换新政策出台，头部家居品牌有望受益

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Insights - The introduction of the "old-for-new" policy is expected to benefit leading home furnishing brands significantly, as it aims to enhance consumer goods replacement capabilities and stimulate sales in the home improvement sector [3][4][5] - The policy includes a substantial allocation of approximately 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support local governments in implementing these measures, with a high central government funding ratio [3][5] - The sales of related home furnishing products are anticipated to increase due to rising demand for second-hand housing transactions and home renovations, supported by favorable policies [4][5] Summary by Sections Policy Support - On July 24, 2024, the National Development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Finance issued a notice to support large-scale equipment updates and consumer goods replacement, emphasizing the importance of enhancing local capabilities for old-for-new exchanges [3][5] - The policy specifically targets various sectors, including automotive, home appliances, and smart home products, with a focus on promoting consumer spending [3][5] Financial Implications - The central government will provide around 150 billion yuan in special long-term bonds to support the implementation of the policy, with a funding sharing ratio of 9:1 between central and local governments [3][5] - For example, in Guangzhou, consumers can receive a subsidy of 15% to 20% on designated products, with a maximum subsidy limit of 20,000 yuan per individual [3][5][6] Market Outlook - The report highlights that leading home furnishing brands, such as Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, are expected to benefit from the increased sales driven by the "old-for-new" policy [4][5][6] - The anticipated growth in sales is supported by the normalization of tax revenue for these brands, which positions them well to capitalize on the policy's benefits [4][5] Company Recommendations - The report recommends focusing on key players in the home furnishing sector, including Oppein Home, Kuka Home, and others, as they are likely to see significant sales growth due to the supportive policy environment [4][5][6]