菲利华：短期承压不改长期趋势，静待需求改善业绩趋势反转

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 1.314 billion yuan for the first three quarters of 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 12.1%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 235 million yuan, down 42.8% year-on-year [2][6] - In Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 399 million yuan, a decline of 15.5% year-on-year, with a net profit of 62 million yuan, down 49.5% year-on-year [2][6] - The gross margin for Q3 2024 was 41.23%, a decrease of 10.21 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was 15.47%, down 13.27 percentage points year-on-year [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - The company’s revenue for 2024 is projected to be 2.148 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 2.74% [7] - The net profit for 2024 is expected to be 405 million yuan, reflecting a decline of 24.70% [7] - The company’s gross margin is expected to stabilize, indicating a potential bottoming out of high-margin military product orders [6] Cost and Expenses - R&D and sales expenses increased by 28.58% and 17.15% year-on-year respectively, indicating a focus on product iteration and market expansion [6] - Management expenses decreased by 12.29% year-on-year, suggesting efforts to optimize costs amid declining profitability [6] Cash Flow and Market Position - The company demonstrated strong cash flow management, with operating cash flow of 131 million yuan in Q3 2024, highlighting its good market positioning and bargaining power [6] - The company is expected to maintain a high moat and benefit from an upward industry trend, justifying the "Buy" rating [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 2.148 billion yuan, 2.783 billion yuan, and 3.137 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 2.74%, 29.56%, and 12.73% [7] - Net profit projections for the same period are 405 million yuan, 646 million yuan, and 755 million yuan, with growth rates of -24.70%, 59.51%, and 16.99% respectively [7]