新材料 分析师：石临源 登记编码：S0730525020001 shily@ccnew.com 0371-65585629 几内亚考虑收紧铝土矿供应，具身智能领域首 个行业标准正式发布 ——新材料行业月报 证券研究报告-行业月报 强于大市（维持） 新材料相对沪深 300 指数表现 《新材料行业月报：津巴布韦限制锂矿出口， 河南发布 2026 年汽车以旧换新补贴细则》 2026-02-27 《新材料行业月报：基本金属价格普涨，2025 年 全 国 累 计 发 电 装 机 容 量 同 增 16% 》 2026-01-29 《新材料行业月报：人形机器人标委会在北京 成立，功能金刚石迎来首个团体标准聚焦热沉 应用》 2025-12-30 联系人：李智 投资要点： 风险提示：技术进展不及预期；上游原材料价格大幅波动；下游需求 不及预期；地缘政治因素影响。 本报告版权属于中原证券股份有限公司 www.ccnew.com 请阅读最后一页各项声明 第1页 / 共21页 发布日期：2026 年 03 月 30 日 -50% -40% -30% -20% -10% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 2023-03-3 ...

Investment Rating - The report rates the military industry as "Buy" [1] Core Insights - The second Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Conference has opened, and Japan has officially received the "Tomahawk" missiles. The intensification of great power competition is a long-term trend, indicating a positive long-term outlook for the military industry [3][9] Summary by Sections Investment Thesis - Key investment themes include: 1) Assembly: AVIC Shenyang Aircraft, Aerospace South Lake, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft, and GD Radar 2) Components: AVIC Optoelectronics, Unisoc, Shaanxi Huada, Zhenhua Technology, Zhimin Technology, Guobo Electronics, and Ruichuang Micro-Nano 3) Subsystems: Aero Engine Corporation of China, AVIC Avionics, North Navigation, and Aerospace Electronics 4) Materials and Processing: AVIC High-Tech, Filihua, Guangwei Composite, Huayin Technology, Plit, Western Materials, Aviation Materials, Jiach Technology, and Hangya Technology [5][9] Market Review - The military sector experienced a decline, with the defense and military index dropping by 1.66%, underperforming the broader market by 0.57 percentage points, ranking 25th out of 29 [11][12] - The Shanghai Composite Index fell by 1.09%, and the ChiNext Index dropped by 1.68% [11][12] Key Events - The second Commercial Aerospace Industry Development Conference opened in Shenzhen, focusing on aerospace technology, low-orbit satellites, deep space exploration, and commercial launch technologies [22][23] - China Southern Airlines' C919 domestic aircraft commenced operations on the Guangzhou to Wenzhou route, marking a significant milestone in domestic aviation [25][26] - Germany's arms exports are projected to reach a record high in 2025, with a total value exceeding €131.1 billion [27][28]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant growth potential in the defense and aerospace sector, particularly with the recent developments in China's commercial aviation market and the increasing demand for gas turbines [5][15][16]. Group 1: Industry Overview - The China Commercial Aircraft Corporation (COMAC) supplier conference indicates a new phase of large aircraft entering mass production, with the C919 aircraft expanding its operational routes significantly [5][15]. - The gas turbine market has seen a dramatic price increase, with unit costs rising from approximately $2,000 to $3,000 per kilowatt, reflecting a nearly 50% increase driven by supply chain pressures [5][16]. Group 2: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies several key investment themes based on the "S-curve" cycle evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms, military exports, and emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and AI [5][17]. - Specific companies to watch include: - Aviation Power and Control, which are positioned to benefit from high-end aviation equipment production and maintenance needs [5][24][25]. - Zhonghang Xifei and Zhonghang Heavy Machinery, which are major players in military and civil aircraft manufacturing [5][26][27]. - Guangwei Composite Materials, recognized as a core supplier in the aerospace carbon fiber market, with multiple growth avenues in new materials and applications [5][28]. Group 3: Financial Analysis - The report provides a detailed financial analysis of key companies, including projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026, indicating a generally positive outlook for the sector [7]. - For instance, Aviation Power is expected to have a dynamic PE of approximately 24X in 2025, reflecting strong growth potential in the aviation supply chain [5][27]. Group 4: Market Trends - The defense sector is experiencing a shift towards modernization and increased demand for advanced technologies, with a focus on integrating AI and quantum computing into military applications [5][17][20]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic production capabilities and the ongoing trend of localization in the semiconductor industry, which is expected to drive growth in the coming years [5][20].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the company, marking its first coverage in this regard [9][10]. Core Insights - The company is positioned as a leading enterprise in the quartz glass sector, with a comprehensive layout expected to drive growth. It specializes in high-performance quartz glass materials and products, which are widely used in semiconductor, aerospace, optical, photovoltaic, and optical communication industries [16][24]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in demand for quartz electronic cloth due to advancements in AI and high-frequency communication technologies, suggesting that the quartz electronic cloth market is on the verge of a growth phase [12][66]. - The company plans to invest 624 million yuan to enhance its production capacity for quartz electronic yarn, which is a key raw material for quartz electronic cloth, addressing a notable supply-demand gap in the short term [30][7]. Summary by Sections 1. Leading Enterprise in Military and Civilian Quartz Glass - The company, Hubei Feiliwa Quartz Glass Co., Ltd., has a rich history dating back to 1966 and has expanded its operations through acquisitions and new subsidiaries. It is recognized as a major supplier of quartz glass fibers in the aerospace sector and has achieved certification from leading semiconductor equipment manufacturers [16][24]. 2. Signs of Operational Performance Recovery - From 2021 to 2023, the company experienced steady growth, with a CAGR of 30.71% in revenue and 20.53% in net profit. However, in 2024, revenue is projected to decline by 16.68% due to a temporary drop in downstream demand. A recovery is expected in 2025, with a projected revenue increase of 5.17% in the first three quarters [34][42]. 3. Demand in AI and High-Frequency Communication - The report highlights that the third generation of low-dielectric electronic cloth, made from high-purity quartz fibers, is set to meet the increasing demands of AI servers and high-frequency communication applications. This material is crucial for enhancing the performance of printed circuit boards (PCBs) [12][66]. 4. Strong Demand in Military Applications - The report notes that the quartz glass fiber market is expected to grow due to its applications in high-performance airborne radar and missile systems, driven by geopolitical uncertainties and the need for enhanced military capabilities [6][12]. 5. Profit Forecast and Valuation - The company is projected to achieve net profits of 4.54 billion yuan in 2025, with significant growth rates expected in subsequent years. The report anticipates a recovery in profitability, with a projected PE ratio of 38.33 in 2026 [9][10].

Summary of Conference Call Records Industry Overview - The conference call focuses on the AI server and PCB (Printed Circuit Board) industry, particularly the advancements in materials and technology related to AI platforms and their components. Key Points AI Platform Upgrade - The new generation AI server architecture has shifted from "mid-board + CP board" to "switch backplane/orthogonal backplane + computing board," significantly increasing the requirements for backplane layers and material performance [1] - The Virtuoso cabinet inherits the GB300 design and upgrades materials, resulting in a 2x increase in PCB value, with each unit requiring 5 LPU cabinets and 1 CPU cabinet, all needing high-end PCBs [1] - This architectural adjustment is expected to increase PCB quantity by 2-3 times and value by 4-5 times, leading to a substantial rise in demand for copper-clad laminates (CCL) [1] Production Timeline - Core product mass production timelines are set: Rubin is expected to start mass production in Q3 2026, with PCB/CCL materials confirmed by late Q2 to early Q3; Alt in Q4 2026; and Fermi in the second half of 2027, with design completion in 2026 [1] Material Demand and Certification - M9 and M10 materials are projected to see explosive demand, with M9 CCL demand reaching millions of units by 2026 and increasing to 20-30 million units by 2027 alongside the Rubin platform [2] - M10 material certification has begun, with Nvidia requiring a loss factor (Df) of 0.0003. The competitive materials include PTFE (best electrical performance) and hydrocarbon resin + M10 filler, with PTFE outperforming M9 by 20%-30% [2] - M9 solutions have been confirmed, utilizing either "hydrocarbon resin + Q fabric" or "PTFE + fiberglass-free fabric," with a stable yield of 90% for M9 CCL, ready for mass production [2] Supply Chain and Pricing - The supply side is highly concentrated, with CTE fabric currently in severe shortage, priced at 120 RMB/kg, expected to rise further in 2026. New production capacity is anticipated to be released in the second half of 2026 [3] - Q fabric is primarily supplied by Asahi Kasei and domestic suppliers, with domestic prices 20%-30% lower than overseas [3] - Price increases for CCL are expected in 2025 due to rising costs of glass fabric and copper foil, with a projected 20%-30% increase in prices being passed down to end-users by April 2026 [3] PCB Market Dynamics - Due to the surge in PCB demand and value, existing suppliers are unable to meet capacity, prompting Nvidia to onboard new suppliers to ensure supply and reduce costs, with 2-4 suppliers per material number [4] - Key suppliers for LPU and CPU boards are identified, with a notable shift in market share towards new entrants like Jingwang Electronics and Dongshan Precision, while traditional players like Shenghong Technology see a decline in market share despite increased absolute order volumes [4] Copper Foil Specifications - Specifications for copper foil are being upgraded in line with material advancements, with M9 requiring HVP4 copper foil and M10 requiring HVP5/HVP6, with demand for HVP4 expected to reach 8,000-30,000 tons by 2027 [4] - Domestic manufacturers like Tongguan and Longdian Huaxin are accelerating the replacement of foreign suppliers due to price advantages [4] Market Potential - The market potential for CCL is significant, with GB300 cabinets requiring 50 CCLs and 60 PPs, while Rubin Ultra cabinets require 200 CCLs and 240 PPs. The value of core products is highlighted, with LPU boards valued at 20,000-30,000 RMB each and next-generation switch backplanes exceeding 800,000 RMB [5] - The global demand for M9 CCL is projected to reach 20-30 million units by 2027, corresponding to an area of over 20 million square meters, indicating a market size of several billion RMB [5] - Key beneficiaries across various segments are identified, including Shengyi Technology in CCL, Feilihua in electronic fabric, Jingwang Electronics in PCB manufacturing, and Tongguan Copper Foil in copper foil [5]

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the high-quality development of the marine economy and the rising demand in commercial aerospace and gas turbines, driven by strategic initiatives and technological advancements [5][13][14] - The report highlights the importance of the "S-curve" cycle evolution, focusing on supply chain reforms and the trends of automation and intelligence in the defense industry, with specific companies recommended for investment [15][16] - The report discusses the impact of geopolitical tensions, particularly the military actions involving the U.S. and Israel against Iran, which have led to significant disruptions in global energy and supply chains [5][13] Group 2 - The report identifies key companies in the defense and aerospace sectors, such as AVIC, which is expected to benefit from the modernization of military equipment and the growing demand for high-end aviation engines [23][24][26] - The report provides financial forecasts for various companies, indicating expected net profits and corresponding PE ratios, such as AVIC's projected net profit of 11.90 billion CNY in 2025 with a dynamic PE of approximately 59X [26][27] - The report highlights the potential of companies like Feiliwa and Guorui Technology in the semiconductor and aerospace materials sectors, emphasizing their competitive advantages and growth prospects in domestic and international markets [21][22][18]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on energy engineering and energy materials, suggesting potential for revaluation in the sector [2][13]. Core Insights - The transition of engineering companies from traditional construction to renewable energy infrastructure is significantly altering revenue structures. For instance, China Energy Engineering's renewable energy business revenue is projected to exceed 32% by the first half of 2025, up from 22.7% in 2022. The total new contracts signed in 2025 are expected to reach 1.45 trillion yuan, with renewable energy contracts accounting for over 40% [2][13]. - The business model is shifting towards integrated investment, construction, and operation. Companies like North International and China Power Construction are leading examples, with projects such as the Croatian wind farm demonstrating this model. The average project size in renewable energy has increased to 360 million yuan, compared to 220 million yuan in 2021 [3][14]. - The international expansion of energy engineering is becoming a hallmark of Chinese infrastructure. For example, China Energy Engineering's overseas revenue share is projected to be 15% in the first half of 2025, up from 12.8% in 2022 [4][15]. Summary by Sections Weekly Discussion - The report emphasizes the ongoing transformation in energy engineering and materials, highlighting the structural changes in revenue and order composition within companies like China Energy Engineering [2][13]. Cycle Linkage - The report provides insights into various materials, noting that the national average price of cement is 337 yuan per ton, down 60 yuan year-on-year, with an average shipment rate of 24.7% [5][17]. - The average price of float glass is reported at 1177.42 yuan per ton, reflecting a slight increase, while the inventory days for monitored provinces have decreased [5][17]. Market Performance - The construction materials index has shown a decline of 1.33%, with specific segments like glass manufacturing and cement showing varied performance [20][21]. Price Changes in Construction Materials - Cement prices have seen a slight decrease, with regional variations noted, while float glass prices have been supported by rising costs, particularly due to geopolitical events affecting energy prices [30][40].

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the acceleration of unmanned and intelligent combat capabilities, improving military system efficiency, and promoting the standardization of military-civilian integration as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan [5][13] - The new quality forces are expected to accelerate during the 14th Five-Year Plan, with significant developments anticipated in large aircraft, low-altitude economy, satellite internet, and nuclear fusion [5][14] - The report identifies investment opportunities across various sectors, including supply chain reforms, military trade, and emerging industries such as commercial aerospace and AI [5][15] Section Summaries 1. Weekly Insights - The 14th Five-Year Plan highlights the need for modernization in defense and military, focusing on the development of new combat forces and improving resource efficiency [13] - It stresses the importance of integrating new quality production forces with combat capabilities to enhance national strategic systems [13] 2. Industry Trends - The report notes that the defense industry is poised for growth, particularly in areas like large aircraft production and low-altitude economic development [14] - It mentions the importance of commercial aerospace and the need for advancements in satellite internet and quantum technology as future growth points [14] 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies that are positioned well within the "S-curve" of industry evolution, particularly those involved in supply chain reforms and intelligent automation [15] - It highlights specific companies to watch, including those in military trade, large aircraft, and emerging technologies like AI and quantum computing [15] 4. Company Valuations and Financial Analysis - The report provides detailed financial metrics for key companies in the defense sector, including expected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios for 2025 and 2026 [6] - Companies such as航材股份, 铂力特, and 紫光国微 are highlighted for their growth potential and strategic positioning within the industry [6] 5. Market Dynamics - The report discusses the competitive landscape, noting the importance of technological advancements and market positioning for companies like 航发动力 and 中航重机 [23][27] - It emphasizes the need for companies to adapt to changing market demands and leverage their technological capabilities to maintain competitive advantages [25][26]

Investment Rating - The report suggests focusing on investment targets with large market space, high barriers, and high performance elasticity, particularly in sectors expected to experience high growth such as new aviation equipment, missiles, unmanned equipment, military trade, domestic large aircraft, gas turbines, and commercial aerospace [5][30]. Core Insights - The report highlights that the military industry is driven by three macro factors: national defense policy, geopolitical environment, and domestic military expenditure, indicating an upward trend for the industry [2][31]. - It emphasizes the structural characteristics of traditional equipment showing steady growth while new combat power equipment is expected to see high growth, with military trade and civil-military integration opening up growth ceilings for military enterprises [2][30]. - The analysis of the military industry from 2020 to 2025 indicates that significant price inflation in certain segments, driven by equipment upgrades and increased usage, has led to substantial profit elasticity [1][23]. Summary by Sections Review of Military Industry Trends - The report reviews the military industry from 2020 to 2025, noting that the growth was primarily driven by national defense policies and the release of new equipment, leading to a "Davis double-click" market dynamic [14][16]. - It also discusses the impact of geopolitical events, such as the Russia-Ukraine war, on military stock performance, particularly in the U.S. market, where military stocks have seen significant valuation increases despite not achieving rapid growth in fundamentals [25][26]. Key Sectors to Watch - The report identifies key sectors to focus on, including: - **Aviation New Equipment**: Emphasizing the importance of new models and increased usage [8]. - **Missiles**: Highlighting the potential for high elastic growth due to low baselines and strong consumption attributes [8]. - **Unmanned Equipment**: Noting the maturation of China's unmanned equipment industry and its expected high growth during the 14th Five-Year Plan [8]. - **Military Trade**: Recognizing military trade as a significant growth driver for established military enterprises [8]. - **Domestic Large Aircraft**: Indicating that the large aircraft industry is entering a period of accelerated development [8]. - **Gas Turbines**: Focusing on the high demand driven by data center electricity needs [9]. - **Commercial Aerospace**: Identifying it as a super track with significant growth potential [9]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends identifying investment targets that are positioned in high-growth sectors with large market potential and high barriers to entry, ensuring that these companies can benefit from the overall industry growth [5][30]. - It suggests focusing on companies with strong market positions and high performance elasticity, particularly those involved in high-demand segments such as military AI, unmanned systems, and commercial aerospace [5][30].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an overweight rating for the defense and military industry, suggesting a positive outlook for the sector [2][24]. Core Views - The defense budget for 2026 is projected to be approximately 1,909.6 billion yuan, reflecting a 7.0% increase from 2025, indicating a sustained growth trend for five consecutive years [2]. - The "14th Five-Year Plan" is progressing steadily, with expectations for improved industry fundamentals in the first half of 2026, driven by a recovery in orders and performance [2]. - The report highlights the emergence of aerospace as a new pillar industry, with accelerated commercialization in the commercial aerospace sector [2]. - The report emphasizes the importance of domestic demand growth and technological advancements in driving investment opportunities within the military industry [2]. Market Review - Last week, the Shenwan Defense and Military Index fell by 2.21%, while the CSI Military Leaders Index decreased by 0.15%. In comparison, the Shanghai Composite Index dropped by 0.93% [3]. - The defense and military sector's performance ranked 13th among 31 Shenwan primary industry sectors [3]. - The top five performing stocks in the defense and military sector were China Power (16.74%), Beihua Co. (16.7%), Aerospace Rainbow (14.42%), Hezhong Shizhuang (10.02%), and Aero Engine Corporation of China (7.07%) [3][9]. - Conversely, the bottom five performers included Feilihua (-17.89%), Boyun New Materials (-12.73%), Triangle Defense (-11.04%), Torch Electronics (-10.83%), and Northern Shares (-10.63%) [3][10]. Valuation Changes - The current PE-TTM for the Shenwan military sector is 99.97, placing it in the upper range historically, with a valuation percentile of 77.25% since January 2014 [10]. - The aerospace and aviation equipment sectors are noted to have relatively high PE valuations since 2020 [10][15].