船舶行业研究框架（一）：周期向上，景气可期

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive investment outlook for the shipbuilding and shipping industry, suggesting that a new upcycle has begun since 2021, driven by global economic recovery and increasing shipping demand [7]. Core Viewpoints - The shipbuilding and shipping industry is experiencing an upward cycle, with economic growth driving demand in the shipping sector, which in turn boosts shipbuilding activities [3][4]. - The aging of ships and new environmental regulations are creating a strong demand for ship replacements, maintaining high shipbuilding prices due to industry capacity clearing [4][34]. - Geopolitical conflicts and public health events have caused short-term fluctuations in shipping demand, impacting order volumes for new ships [5][34]. Summary by Sections Shipbuilding-Shipping Industry Chain - The upstream of the shipbuilding-shipping industry chain consists of raw materials (20%-30% of shipbuilding costs), ship components (45%-50%), and ship design (5%) [2][18]. - The midstream involves ship manufacturing, with a typical construction cycle of 16-36 months from order signing to delivery [2][19]. - The downstream is primarily focused on maritime transport, with global shipping trade volume reaching 1.23 billion tons in 2023, dominated by dry bulk, oil products, and containers [2][20]. Long-term Cycle - The report identifies a long-term cycle where economic growth leads to increased shipping demand, which subsequently drives shipbuilding demand [3][28]. - Historical analysis shows that during economic upturns, shipping markets thrive, leading to increased ship orders and rising ship prices [3][27]. Mid-term Cycle - The aging of ships is a significant factor driving replacement demand, with 41.8% of ships over 20 years old as of 2023 [4][34]. - New environmental regulations are pushing for the modernization of fleets, as older ships become economically unviable [4][34]. Short-term Cycle - The COVID-19 pandemic initially caused a shortage of container shipping capacity, leading to a surge in new orders for container ships [5][34]. - The Russia-Ukraine conflict has increased demand for LNG carriers, with orders for these vessels rising by 147% in 2022 [5][34]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on key players in the industry: - Upstream: Weichai Heavy Machinery and Neway Valve - Midstream: China Shipbuilding Industry Corporation - Downstream: COSCO Shipping and Haitong Development [8].