建材行业报告：如何看待近期水泥的持续提价？

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" based on the expectation of strong performance relative to the market benchmark index [14]. Core Insights - Since September 20, 2024, national cement prices have increased from 393.33 CNY/ton to 413.07 CNY/ton, marking a rise of 5.02%. The southern region has led this increase, with the East China region seeing a rise of 16.39% [1]. - The demand for cement is recovering as the rainy season ends, and companies are implementing staggered production to control supply, which has improved the supply-demand situation at the bottom of the industry [1]. - The cement industry has seen a cumulative production decline of 21.85% since 2021, leading to the exit of outdated production capacity and a positive trend in capacity optimization [1]. Summary by Sections Cement Price Trends - National cement prices have risen significantly, with East China prices increasing by 60.51 CNY/ton since September 20, 2024, and Southwest region prices up by 41.20 CNY/ton since late August [1]. - Year-on-year, national cement prices have increased by 2.97%, with East China and Northeast regions seeing increases of 7.37% and 33.91%, respectively [1]. Demand and Supply Dynamics - The end of the rainy season has led to a recovery in cement demand, while staggered production has been adopted in several provinces, controlling supply effectively [1]. - The industry has been operating at historically low profit levels, prompting a strong willingness among companies to raise prices [1]. Long-term Industry Outlook - The cement industry has been in a low-profit environment for two years, leading to intensified competition and the exit of less efficient production lines [1]. - The implementation of stricter environmental policies and production standards is accelerating the elimination of outdated capacity, which is beneficial for the long-term health of the industry [1]. Investment Recommendations - Leading companies such as Conch Cement, Shafeng Cement, Huaxin Cement, Jidong Cement, Tianshan Cement, and Tapai Group are expected to benefit from supply-side optimization and demand recovery [2]. - The report suggests focusing on Conch Cement as a key investment opportunity [2].