银行业周报：政策落地将助力信贷企稳

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Overweight" [3][17] Core Viewpoints - Recent fiscal and monetary policies are expected to support stable growth in bank credit, with a focus on the effectiveness of subsequent policy implementations [3][17] - The banking sector is facing pressure on asset yields, but the cost-saving effects from previous deposit rate management are still being realized, leading to a potential narrowing of interest margin declines [3][17] - Optimized policies for financial support in the real estate sector and increased local government debt issuance are anticipated to mitigate risks in real estate and urban investment assets, thereby strengthening the quality of bank assets [3][17] Market Review - The banking index rose by 1.48%, outperforming the CSI 300 index by 3.30 percentage points during the period from October 14 to October 20, 2024 [3][5] - The performance of regional banks was notably strong, with the top-performing banks including Chongqing Bank (+12.13%) and Jiangsu Bank (+6.39%) [5][3] - The overall market sentiment is positive, with a focus on the performance of large banks, joint-stock banks, and regional banks [5][3] Funding Market - The funding environment remains loose, with a net recovery of 164.7 billion yuan in the central bank's open market operations [3][8] - Short-term interest rates have generally declined, with the one-year interbank deposit rates for major banks ranging from 1.93% to 2.07% [3][8] - The net financing of certificates of deposit has been low, with a decrease of 348.97 billion yuan since October [3][8] Industry and Company Dynamics - The growth rate of social financing and credit is declining, with September seeing a year-on-year decrease of 369.2 billion yuan in new social financing [3][12] - The total social financing balance grew by 8.0% year-on-year, but the growth rate has decreased by 0.1 percentage points compared to the previous month [3][12] - New loans from financial institutions in September amounted to 1.59 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 720 billion yuan [3][12] Investment Recommendations - Focus on banks with strong asset quality and sustainable performance, particularly high-dividend regional banks and large state-owned banks [3][17] - The report suggests that the high dividend advantage of joint-stock banks is expected to strengthen with the optimization of real estate support policies [3][17]