海大集团：饲料主业表现稳健，生猪养殖超预期

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The company reported Q3 2024 revenue of 32.565 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.75%, while net profit attributable to shareholders was 1.499 billion yuan, an increase of 30.17% year-on-year [2][6] - The feed business showed steady growth, with poultry feed benefiting from an overall increase in stock and good profits from egg poultry, while pig feed sales declined due to low pig inventory but are gradually recovering [6] - The company is experiencing a reduction in breeding costs, combined with hedging strategies and favorable pig prices, leading to good profitability in pig farming [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - Q3 2024 sales gross margin was 11.63%, up 3.16 percentage points year-on-year, and net profit margin was 4.80%, up 1.28 percentage points year-on-year [6] - For the period from the beginning of the year to the end of Q3, the net cash flow from operating activities was 7.814 billion yuan, a decrease of 15.97% year-on-year [6] Business Segments - The company’s feed sales showed robust growth, particularly in poultry feed, while pig feed sales are slowly recovering due to improved breeding profitability [6] - The overseas business in countries like Vietnam, Indonesia, and Ecuador is entering a harvest phase, with significant sales growth in Q3 2024 [6] Future Projections - Revenue projections for 2024-2026 are 114.665 billion yuan, 126.537 billion yuan, and 138.283 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of -1.25%, +10.35%, and +9.28% respectively [6] - Net profit projections for the same period are 4.410 billion yuan, 4.816 billion yuan, and 5.256 billion yuan, with growth rates of 60.87%, 9.22%, and 9.12% respectively [6]