LIUGONG(SZ:000528) Guolian Securities·2024-10-23 00:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [4][6]. Core Views - The company's performance in Q1-Q3 2024 met expectations, with revenue of 22.86 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 8%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of 1.32 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 60% [2][6]. - The company is expected to achieve revenues of 30.39 billion yuan, 35.11 billion yuan, and 40.52 billion yuan for the years 2024-2026, representing year-on-year growth of approximately 10%, 16%, and 15% respectively [2][6]. - The net profit attributable to shareholders is projected to be 1.54 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan for the same period, with year-on-year growth rates of 77%, 37%, and 26% respectively [2][6]. Financial Performance Summary - For Q3 2024, the company reported a single-quarter revenue of 6.80 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 12% but a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 16% [2][6]. - The net profit for Q3 2024 was 340 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 59% and a quarter-on-quarter decrease of 31% [2][6]. - The company’s market share in the loader segment was approximately 27% in 2023, maintaining its position as the leader in the domestic market [6]. Business Development Insights - The demand for earthmoving machinery is recovering, with significant growth in the loader and excavator segments [6]. - The company has initiated a mixed-ownership reform, enhancing its long-term competitiveness through equity incentives and convertible bonds [6]. - The penetration rate of electric loaders has increased from 1% in 2022 to over 10% in the first nine months of 2024, indicating a strong growth trajectory in this segment [6]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected financials for 2024-2026 include revenues of 30.39 billion yuan, 35.11 billion yuan, and 40.52 billion yuan, with corresponding net profits of 1.54 billion yuan, 2.10 billion yuan, and 2.66 billion yuan [7][9]. - The expected earnings per share (EPS) for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are 0.77 yuan, 1.06 yuan, and 1.34 yuan respectively [7][9]. - The company’s asset-liability ratio is reported at 59.49% [4].