Hangcha (603298)2024-10-23 00:09Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [4] Core Views - The report indicates that the domestic macroeconomic environment remains relatively weak in 2024, leading to a decrease in demand for forklifts. However, the overseas market is expected to maintain a high level of demand as the penetration rate of lithium batteries increases [2][6] - The company is projected to achieve revenues of 171.2 billion, 185.1 billion, and 203.8 billion yuan from 2024 to 2026, with net profits of 20.8 billion, 22.3 billion, and 25.6 billion yuan respectively, resulting in a CAGR of 14.14% [2][6] - The earnings per share (EPS) are expected to be 1.59, 1.70, and 1.95 yuan per share for the years 2024, 2025, and 2026 [2][6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In Q1-Q3 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 127.33 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.55%, and a net profit of 15.73 billion yuan, up 21.2% year-on-year. In Q3 alone, revenue was 41.79 billion yuan, down 2.65% year-on-year, while net profit was 5.66 billion yuan, up 9.07% year-on-year [6] - The gross margin and net margin for Q1-Q3 2024 were 22.67% and 12.91%, respectively, showing an increase of 2.46 and 1.9 percentage points year-on-year. For Q3, the gross margin was 25.24% and the net margin was 13.7%, reflecting an increase of 2.87 and 0.89 percentage points year-on-year [6] Market Position - The domestic forklift industry is experiencing stable growth, with total sales reaching 970,680 units in Q1-Q3 2024, a year-on-year increase of 10.8%. The company has established over 60 regional marketing service centers in China, solidifying its domestic market position [6] - Export sales of forklifts increased by 19.9% year-on-year, with the company expanding its overseas presence by establishing over 10 sales companies and service centers in key markets such as Europe, North America, and Southeast Asia [6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates a gradual recovery in the domestic manufacturing sector, which, along with the increasing demand for electric products, is expected to drive new growth in the company's overseas business [2][6] - The projected financials for 2024-2026 indicate a positive growth trajectory, with expected revenue and profit increases driven by both domestic and international market dynamics [2][6]