机械设备行业 标配 （维持） 政策技术筑基，双轮驱动成长 叉车行业系列报告（二）之无人叉车 投资要点： 2026 年 1 月 30 日 分析师：谢少威 SAC 执业证书编号： S0340523010003 电话：0769-23320059 邮箱： xieshaowei@dgzq.com.cn 资料来源：iFind，东莞证券研究所 相关报告 本报告的风险等级为中风险。 本报告的信息均来自已公开信息，关于信息的准确性与完整性，建议投资者谨慎判断，据此入市，风险自担。 请务必阅读末页声明。 深 度 研 究 行 业 研 究 证 券 研 究 报 告 ◼ 政策护航筑生态，技术迭代提效能。无人叉车融合叉车与AGV/AMR技术，可实 现无人化物料搬运及多生产环节对接，能覆盖高位仓库、库外收货区、产线 转运等场景作业，在重载、特殊搬运场景具备不可替代性。政策方面，国家 与地方形成自上而下支撑，将其纳入重点研发范畴并推动技术融合，地方聚 焦场景落地。技术方面，无人叉车作为AGV/AMR技术的垂直应用，随着主机厂 机械设备（申万）指数走势 商在自然导航技术上的突破，基于SLAM技术的自然导航方案已趋于成熟，落 地速度显著加快。其通 ...

杭叉集团：叉车龙头走向全球，无人叉车、人形机器人开启新成长纪元【长江机械-赵智勇团队】 此前我们发布深度报告《杭叉集团：叉车龙头走向全球，无人叉车、人形机器人开启新成长纪元》，看好公司多 维增长点： 当前降息背景下，海外欧美资本品需求有望修复，新兴市场有望受益产能转移，公司叉车主业有望充分受益。 公司持续完善全球网络布局，25年以来海外多个子公司相继开张运营，助力公司海外份额持续提升。< 公司持续完善全球网络布局，25年以来海外多个子公司相继开张运营，助力公司海外份额持续提升。 近年来叉车行业持续向新能化转型，如我国电动叉车销量占比从2010年23%持续提升至2024年的74%。 公司纵深布局锂电、氢能源产品，研发投入力度持续加大，有望凭借新能源产品优势持续提升全球市场地位。 公司在智能板块具备深厚的技术积累和深度的市场布局，通过内生外延不断强化智能化业务综合竞争力。 25年7月收购国自机器人强化技术优势，25年10月全球首次发布杭叉X1系列物流人形机器人，标志着公司完成了从 传统工业车辆制造商向全场景智能物流解决方案提供商的战略升级，未来无人叉车、人形机器人有望助力智能板 块实现跨越式增长。 杭叉集团：叉车 ...

转自：前瞻产业研究院 行业主要上市公司：安徽合力(600761);杭叉集团(603298);厦工股份(600815);诺力股份(603611);柳工 (000528)等 本文核心数据：无人叉车销量;无人叉车行业市场规模;无人叉车发展潜力 无人叉车优劣势明显 无人叉车是一种新型的搬运装备，和传统叉车不同，无人叉车装有自主导航装置，能够在无人操作的状 态下完成物料搬运等工作。无人叉车稳定性高、灵活度大，同时适用于高危环境，降低了人工成本。另 外，联通了数据系统的无人叉车能够对货物搬运工作进行实施监督，提升了工作效率。 但无人叉车相较于传统叉车价格更高，且无法在复杂环境内应用，维护保养成本也更高，因此无人叉车 的大规模应用仍需时日。 | 指标 | 具体分析 | | --- | --- | | 产品优点 | 高效、灵活、节省人力成本、可以实时监控 | | 产品缺点 | 价格高、适用范围有限、维护成本高 | 中国无人叉车布局企业较多 目前，布局无人叉车的企业数量较多，根据移动机器人产业联盟数据，无人叉车领域企业数量已经超过 100家，代表性企业包括杭叉集团、安徽合力、中力股份传统叉车企业，也包括未来机器人、海康机器 人 ...

Group 1: Company Overview - The report highlights that Jinchuang Group (603680) expects a significant increase in net profit for 2025, projecting a range of 540 million to 620 million yuan, representing a year-on-year growth of 78.77% to 105.25% [5] - The company anticipates a non-recurring net profit of 560 million to 640 million yuan for 2025, indicating a growth of 72.72% to 97.39% year-on-year [5] - The demand for rail transit vehicles is expected to rise due to large-scale tenders for the Fuxing high-speed trains, with the company benefiting from increased delivery volumes and improved product structure leading to higher overall gross margins [5][6] Group 2: Industry Insights - The mechanical equipment industry is projected to see growth in both domestic and international forklift sales, with total sales for 2025 expected to reach 1.4518 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [9] - Domestic forklift sales are expected to grow by 12.6% in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors [10] - The report notes that the overall forklift market is showing stable growth, with expectations for this trend to continue into 2026 [10] Group 3: Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a positive outlook for Jinchuang Group, projecting net profits of 551 million, 587 million, and 665 million yuan for 2025 to 2027, with corresponding EPS of 0.70, 0.75, and 0.85 yuan, and PE ratios of 23X, 21X, and 19X respectively, recommending a "buy" rating [8] - The report emphasizes the importance of technological barriers and a comprehensive product range for the company to strengthen its position in the rail transit vehicle supply market [8]

Group 1: Industry Overview - In December 2025, the overall forklift sales reached 111,400 units, a slight increase of 0.03% year-on-year [1] - Domestic sales accounted for 63,800 units, showing a decline of 5.17%, while overseas sales were 47,600 units, reflecting a growth of 7.97% [1] - Cumulative forklift sales for 2025 totaled 1,451,800 units, marking a year-on-year increase of 12.9% [1] Group 2: Domestic Market Insights - Domestic forklift sales increased by 12.6% in 2025, driven by a recovery in demand linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors [2] - The manufacturing PMI new orders index reached 50.8 in December 2025, indicating a strong growth of 1.6 percentage points month-on-month [2] - The total social logistics volume in November 2025 grew by 5.0% year-on-year, reflecting steady growth in logistics demand [2] Group 3: Export Market Insights - Forklift exports grew by 13.4% year-on-year in 2025, indicating a positive trend in overseas demand [2] - The manufacturing PMI new export orders index was at 49.0 in December 2025, with a month-on-month increase of 1.4 percentage points [2] - The engineering machinery export trade value reached $6.417 billion in December 2025, a year-on-year increase of 27.2% [2] Group 4: Company Performance - Hangcha Group expects a net profit of between 2.113 billion and 2.315 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5.00% to 15.00% [3] - The growth is attributed to the company's ability to capture market demand, with a focus on electric forklifts and high-value products [3] - The company is expanding its presence in emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Brazil, and the Middle East, enhancing its global sales revenue [3] Group 5: Strategic Developments - Hangcha Group established a Southeast Asia service center to enhance local operations and service capabilities [4] - The service center aims to improve service coverage and response efficiency in the region [4] - A manufacturing base in Thailand is expected to commence operations in 2026, marking an important expansion of the company's global manufacturing system [4]

Core Viewpoint - The report from Zhongyou Securities highlights that Hangcha Group has demonstrated stable performance and is awaiting the ramp-up of its embodied intelligence products [1] Financial Performance - The company has effectively seized market demand growth opportunities, resulting in a favorable increase in operating revenue alongside continuous profit growth due to its core products' strong technological foundation and advantages in large-scale production [1] Product Structure - The sales proportion of electric forklifts continues to rise, leading to further optimization of the product structure, with high-value-added products such as new energy forklifts and large-tonnage forklifts becoming the main drivers of growth [1] Market Expansion - In addition to consolidating its traditional markets in Europe and the United States, the company is accelerating its expansion into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, Brazil, and the Middle East, showcasing the effectiveness of its globalization strategy [1] Intelligent Development - The company is gradually improving its layout in the field of intelligence, with data-driven development of embodied intelligence [1] Valuation - The projected PE valuations for the company from 2025 to 2027 are 15.88, 14.46, and 13.37 respectively, maintaining a "buy" rating [1]

Core Viewpoint - The forklift industry is experiencing stable growth driven by the recovery of manufacturing and logistics demand, with domestic and overseas sales both increasing in 2025 [1][2] Group 1: Industry Overview - Forklift sales in 2025 are projected to reach 145.18 million units, a year-on-year increase of 12.9%, with domestic sales at 90.68 million units (up 12.6%) and export sales at 54.50 million units (up 13.4%) [1] - The domestic forklift market is closely linked to the manufacturing and logistics sectors, with a positive correlation to the manufacturing PMI and social logistics growth [2] - The overall forklift sales in December 2025 are expected to be 11.14 million units, with domestic sales at 6.38 million units (down 5.17%) and overseas sales at 4.76 million units (up 7.97%) [1] Group 2: Company Performance - Hangcha Group anticipates a net profit of 21.13 billion to 23.15 billion yuan for 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 5% to 15% due to strong market demand and improved product structure [3] - The company is focusing on electric forklifts and high-value products, which are becoming the main drivers of growth [3] - Hangcha Group is expanding its global presence, particularly in Southeast Asia, Brazil, and the Middle East, with an increasing share of overseas sales [3][4] Group 3: Strategic Developments - Hangcha Group established a Southeast Asia service center to enhance local operations and service capabilities, marking a significant milestone in its regional development strategy [4] - The service center aims to provide comprehensive support, including spare parts, technical assistance, and after-sales service, improving efficiency and reliability [4] - The company's manufacturing base in Thailand is expected to commence operations in 2026, further expanding its global manufacturing capabilities [4]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the machinery industry, indicating a positive outlook for investment returns over the next 6-12 months [1]. Core Insights - The domestic sales of excavators continued to grow in December 2025, with a significant recovery in non-excavator categories. The total excavator sales (including exports) reached 23,095 units, a year-on-year increase of 19.2%, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, up 10.9% [3][4]. - The report highlights a robust recovery in the demand for construction machinery driven by ongoing infrastructure investments and the replacement cycle of machinery, projecting a compound growth rate of around 30% for replacement demand in the coming years [4][5]. - The export of excavators also showed strong growth, with December 2025 exports reaching 12,764 units, a 26.9% increase year-on-year, and total export value for the year at $64.2 billion, up 27.2% [6][10]. Summary by Sections Domestic Sales Performance - In December 2025, excavator sales reached 23,095 units, with domestic sales at 10,331 units, reflecting a 19.2% and 10.9% year-on-year growth respectively. For the entire year, total excavator sales were 235,257 units, up 17.0%, and domestic sales were 118,518 units, up 17.9% [3][14]. - Non-excavator machinery categories also saw significant growth, with loader sales increasing by 30.0% and motor grader sales by 14.0% in December 2025 [14]. Export Performance - The report notes that excavator exports in December 2025 reached 12,764 units, marking a 26.9% increase year-on-year, with total annual exports at 116,739 units, up 16.1% [6][14]. - The total export value of construction machinery for December 2025 was $64.2 billion, a 27.2% increase, with the annual total at $601.7 billion, up 13.8% [6]. Future Demand Drivers - The report emphasizes that active fiscal policies are expected to stimulate infrastructure investment, ensuring sustained demand for construction machinery in the medium term [5]. - The commencement of the Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an estimated investment of approximately 1.2 trillion yuan, is projected to significantly boost machinery demand, with equipment needs potentially reaching 120 to 180 billion yuan [9][10]. Electric and Intelligent Machinery Trends - Electric loader sales surged by 218.7% in December 2025, with an electricization rate of 22.2%, indicating a strong trend towards electrification in the machinery sector [7]. - The report also highlights the growth potential in the forklift market, driven by advancements in robotics and artificial intelligence, with a projected 39.3% increase in sales of unmanned forklifts in 2025 [8]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several leading manufacturers, including SANY Heavy Industry, XCMG, and Zoomlion, as well as component suppliers like Hengli Hydraulic, indicating a favorable long-term outlook for these companies [10].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Market Perform" rating for the forklift industry, emphasizing the importance of lithium battery replacement and product export as key investment themes [1]. Core Insights - The forklift industry is experiencing a clear transition towards electrification, driven by increasing domestic demand and favorable policies. The focus is shifting towards safety regulations, emission controls, and digital supervision, which guide the industry's upgrade direction [4][11]. - The electrification of forklifts, particularly through lithium batteries, is identified as a primary growth driver. The advantages of electric forklifts include environmental friendliness, low noise, and low energy consumption, leading to increased penetration in high-demand sectors [4][38]. - The report highlights the competitive landscape, noting that domestic leaders are enhancing their core competitiveness through high-performance products and deepening international market presence. The industry is characterized by significant barriers to entry, including technology, brand, and distribution channels [4][29]. Summary by Sections 1. Domestic Demand and Market Overview - The forklift industry in China has seen rapid growth, with a projected 2024 sales volume of 1.45 million units, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 12.93% [18]. - The global forklift market is expected to reach 21.598 million units in 2024, with Asia accounting for 52.01% of sales [18][29]. - The competitive landscape is dominated by foreign companies, with the top three (CR3) holding approximately 53% market share in 2024 [29]. 2. Electrification and Lithium Battery Market - The report emphasizes that lithium batteries will lead the electrification transition, with electric forklifts expected to replace internal combustion models due to stricter environmental regulations [4][38]. - The market for electric forklifts is projected to grow significantly, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 4.16% from 2025 to 2030, reaching a market size of $71.85 billion [29]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on companies with lithium battery technology barriers and strong overseas channels, such as Hangcha Group, Anhui Heli, Zhongli Group, and Noli Group, which are expected to benefit from tightening environmental policies and the electrification wave [4][29].

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Yaxia Hydropower Project, with an expected investment of over RMB 2 trillion, will significantly boost the demand for high - end and large - scale construction machinery, serving as a key investment catalyst for the construction machinery industry [1][5][7] - The 14th Five - Year Plan sets the tone for the industry, promoting original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be gradually released, benefiting cyclical sectors such as construction machinery [1][12] - China's construction machinery export data has been growing rapidly. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, and exports are expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030. Domestic companies' overseas revenue has increased significantly [1][17][22] - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index allows for one - click allocation of core construction machinery assets. It has high long - term returns, high volatility, and significant event - driven characteristics. The performance of its constituent stocks is expected to continue to improve [1][34][56] - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error [1][68] Summary by Directory 1. The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion 1.1 The Yaxia Hydropower Project Starts, and Trillion - Dollar Investment Creates a Century - Long Project - The Yaxia Hydropower Project officially started in 2025. Its construction plan can be traced back to 2007, and it entered the implementation phase in 2024 [5] - Compared with the Three Gorges Project, the Yaxia Hydropower Project may have a dynamic investment of over RMB 2 trillion, and most of the investment will be used for power station construction and power transmission projects [7][9] 1.2 The 14th Five - Year Plan Sets the Tone for the Industry, and the Domestic and Overseas Sales of Excavators Continue to Improve Synchronously - The 14th Five - Year Plan emphasizes original innovation and the development of strategic emerging industries. The equipment replacement demand in the machinery industry is expected to be released, benefiting cyclical sectors [12] - In November 2025, the sales of various excavators reached 20,027 units, a year - on - year increase of 13.90%. Domestic sales increased by 9.11% year - on - year, and exports increased by 18.84% year - on - year, indicating the recovery of the industry [13] 1.3 The Global Construction Machinery Market is Vast, and China's Export Data Shows High Growth - The global construction machinery market is expected to grow from $213.5 billion in 2024 to $296.1 billion in 2030. The Chinese market is at a cyclical inflection point, expected to rise from $234 billion in 2024 to $570 billion in 2030 [17] - The global excavator market is expected to reach $92.8 billion in 2030. In China, excavators will lead the industry recovery with a growth rate of 16.8% [17] - Overseas markets account for nearly 90% of the global construction machinery market. China's construction machinery export volume has increased from $18.894 billion in 2020 to $52.829 billion in 2024, with a CAGR of 29.33% [22] 1.4 The Construction Machinery Cycle Reaches the Bottom and Rebounds, and Domestic Brands Accelerate Overseas Expansion - The excavator industry has experienced two cycles and is now in a new upward cycle. In 2024, the annual sales volume increased by 3.1% year - on - year, and from January to November 2025, the growth rate expanded to 16.7% [24] - The overseas revenue of the four major domestic construction machinery manufacturers has increased significantly. In 2024, the overseas revenue ratios of Sany Heavy Industry and Zoomlion exceeded 50% [27] - International giants still dominate the global market. Chinese construction machinery manufacturers such as XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Zoomlion still have room for improvement in global market share [29] 2. The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index: One - Click Allocation of Core Construction Machinery Assets 2.1 Index Compilation: Selecting Core Leaders in the Construction Machinery Industry - The CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index was released on September 27, 2021, with a base date of June 30, 2016. It selects 50 representative listed companies in the construction machinery field as samples to reflect the overall performance of construction machinery - related stocks [34] - The index samples are adjusted semi - annually, on the next trading day after the second Friday of June and December each year [36] 2.2 Industry Market Value Characteristics: High Concentration in the Construction Machinery Sector, with Market Value Structure Dominated by Leading Companies - As of January 6, 2026, the index has 50 constituent stocks, with an average total market value of RMB 28.131 billion. Five stocks have a market value of over RMB 100 billion [37] - The top ten constituent stocks of the index account for 72.55% of the total weight. The top three stocks by weight are XCMG, Sany Heavy Industry, and Weichai Power [43] - The index focuses on the construction machinery, auto parts, and special equipment sectors, with a combined proportion of over 87%. The construction machinery industry has the highest weight, at 61.99% [46] 2.3 High Elasticity, Offensive Nature, and Long - Term Allocation Value - In the rising market, the CSI Construction Machinery Index has strong explosive power. For example, from January 31 to April 19, 2019, its cumulative return was 44.07%, significantly higher than that of broad - based indices [50] - Since the base date, the cumulative return of the index has reached 153.95%, and the annualized return is 10.60%, far exceeding that of major broad - based indices. It has high volatility and a large maximum drawdown, indicating its high - elasticity offensive characteristics [56] - The index shows a pattern of leading in the up - cycle and adjusting in the down - cycle. In 2019 and 2025, its annual returns were significantly higher than those of broad - based indices [62] 2.4 High - Level Operation Supported by Positive Expectations, Highlighting the Attention of Sector Allocation - As of January 5, 2026, the P/E ratio of the CSI Construction Machinery Index was 24.13, with a historical quantile of 79.59%, and the P/B ratio was 2.26, with a historical quantile of 94.49%. The valuation is at a relatively high level [65] - The market's positive expectations for the industry have been reflected in the valuation, highlighting the long - term certainty of sector allocation [65] 3. Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF - The Huaxia CSI Construction Machinery ETF (fund code: 515970) closely tracks the CSI Construction Machinery Theme Index, aiming to minimize tracking deviation and error. It started raising funds on January 19, 2026, and ended on January 30, 2026, with Wang Xinwei as the fund manager [68]