中际旭创：业绩高增，1.6T产品将于Q4出货

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, with expected revenue of 259.1/390.2/478.3 billion yuan and net profit of 55.3/87.7/109.0 billion yuan for 2024-2026, corresponding to a PE ratio of 29/18/15 [1] Core Views - The company achieved rapid growth in revenue and net profit in Q3 2024, with revenue reaching 17.313 billion yuan, up 146.26% YoY, and net profit reaching 3.753 billion yuan, up 189.59% YoY [1] - AI industry development has driven the company's performance, with increased shipments of high-end products like 800G, leading to improved gross and net profit margins [1] - The company is positioned as a top-tier global optical module supplier, with strong customer relationships and the ability to mass-produce high-speed optical modules [1] - The 1.6T optical module is expected to ramp up in 2025, driven by GB200 applications, which will significantly enhance the company's performance and profitability [1] - Silicon photonics solutions are expected to become a key advantage for the company, with the global silicon photonics module market projected to reach nearly 8 billion USD by 2026 [1] Financial Performance Summary - The company's revenue for 2024E is projected to be 259.14 billion yuan, with a growth rate of 141.78% YoY, and net profit is expected to reach 55.3 billion yuan, up 154.44% YoY [4] - Gross margin for the first three quarters of 2024 was 33.32%, up 1.57 percentage points YoY, while net margin was 22.36%, up 3.69 percentage points YoY [1] - The company's ROE (return on equity) is expected to rise to 27.77% in 2024E, up from 15.24% in 2023 [4] Industry and Product Analysis - The company's 800G optical modules are expected to maintain market share in 2025, with demand driven by Ethernet data center construction [1] - Silicon photonics modules offer advantages such as high integration, low cost, and low power consumption, with the company already developing 1.6T silicon photonics solutions and self-developed chips [1] - The company's self-developed silicon photonics chips are expected to ensure production capacity and further improve profitability [1] Market Sentiment - Market-related reports show a strong "Buy" sentiment, with 117 "Buy" ratings in the past six months and an average score of 1.00, indicating a consistent "Buy" recommendation [8]