2024年三季度煤炭债复盘：存量煤炭债平均期限已超供改时期水平

Investment Rating - The report maintains an investment rating of "A" for the coal sector, indicating a positive outlook for the industry [1]. Core Insights - The coal sector has shown signs of recovery in the third quarter, with a notable improvement in the fundamentals since September. The traditional peak season for thermal coal is expected to provide strong price support around 800 RMB/ton [1]. - The report highlights that Shanxi coal enterprises are likely to see improved performance in the second half of the year due to production resumption and policy support [1]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring winter demand and the potential for a rebound in the market following recent adjustments in debt issuance strategies [1]. Summary by Sections 1. Coal Industry Fundamental Quarterly Review - Supply Side: Structural contraction observed in the first half of the year, with a recovery in production noted in September. The total coal output for Q3 reached 1.201 billion tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.22% [11]. - Import Coal: The growth in imported coal has been primarily to fill supply gaps, with Q3 imports exceeding expectations. The structure of imported coal has shifted, with an increase in coking coal and a decrease in anthracite [12]. - Demand Side: The demand continues to show a bifurcated trend, with electricity demand remaining robust while non-electric demand, particularly related to real estate, is weaker [19]. - Price and Profitability: Coal prices have maintained a high level of volatility, with industry revenue declining by 10.6% year-on-year to 2.07 trillion RMB in the first eight months of 2024 [24][29]. - Investment and Leverage: Fixed asset investment in the coal sector decreased by 3.3% year-on-year, while the debt-to-asset ratio remained reasonable at 59.74% [34]. 2. Coal Debt Market Analysis - Primary Market: In Q3, net financing turned negative, with new issuances amounting to 87.1 billion RMB and repayments totaling 123.3 billion RMB, resulting in a net financing of -36.2 billion RMB [39]. - Secondary Market: The scale of outstanding coal debts increased to 696.5 billion RMB, reflecting a 5.78% year-on-year rise. The average maturity of coal debts has surpassed levels seen during the supply-side reform period [42][49].