2024年10月宏观利率展望：基本面低位企稳，利率波动增大

Economic Outlook - In September, fixed asset investment growth was stable at 3.4% year-on-year, with infrastructure investment showing the most significant increase, indicating accelerated fiscal spending[5] - Real estate development investment growth improved slightly to -10.2%, with sales continuing to show an upward trend, suggesting a gradual stabilization[7] - Consumer spending growth in September rose to 3.4%, exceeding expectations, driven by appliance subsidies and increased consumer confidence[10] Inflation and Price Trends - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) growth in September was 0.4%, down 0.2 percentage points from the previous month, primarily due to falling non-food prices[26] - The Producer Price Index (PPI) continued to decline, with a year-on-year decrease of 2.8% in September, reflecting weak overall demand[30] Monetary Policy and Liquidity - Since the end of September, the interbank funding rates have eased, with the DR007 falling below the policy rate by 5 basis points, indicating a more relaxed liquidity environment[35] - The People's Bank of China has implemented a series of monetary easing measures, including a 20 basis point cut in policy rates, to support economic growth[36] Bond Market Dynamics - Bond yields have rebounded from low levels, influenced by changing market expectations following government announcements, leading to increased volatility in the bond market[1] - The upcoming decisions regarding debt issuance limits and central government deficits are expected to increase supply pressure in the government bond market[1] Financial Data Insights - M1 growth has recorded six consecutive months of negative growth, while social financing growth has reached a new low, indicating weak internal demand[41] - Short-term and medium-term loans have decreased year-on-year, reflecting ongoing challenges in consumer and corporate credit demand[41]