银行业“量价质”跟踪（七）：存贷再次同步降息，息差影响温和

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Market Perform" indicating that the industry index is expected to perform within -10% to 10% relative to the CSI 300 index over the next six months [5]. Core Viewpoints - On October 18, state-owned banks implemented a new round of deposit rate cuts, synchronized with the LPR, marking the largest single cut in recent years [2]. - The recent deposit rate cuts significantly buffer the impact of the October LPR and existing housing loan interest rate reductions. The asymmetric rate cut risk to interest margins is believed to be alleviated [2][4]. - The key variable for future interest margin trends will be market demand, which is expected to ease as the effects of housing loan rate policies are digested and macroeconomic policies continue to be implemented [2][4]. Summary by Sections Deposit Rate Cuts - The recent deposit rate cuts affect all types of deposits, with larger reductions for high-interest deposits. Specific cuts include: - Demand deposits decreased by 5 basis points (bps) to 0.10% - All term deposits decreased by 25 bps, with new rates of 1.1%, 1.5%, and 1.55% for 1, 3, and 5-year terms respectively [2][3]. - Agreement deposits decreased by 40 bps to 0.20% [3]. Impact on Interest Margins - The deposit rate cuts are expected to enhance interest margins for major banks: - For Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC), the interest margin is projected to increase by approximately 15 bps during the repricing cycle, with notable increases in Q4 and Q1 of the following year [2]. - For Postal Savings Bank, the interest margin is expected to rise by about 20 bps, with significant increases also anticipated in Q4 and Q1 [2]. Demand Side Pressure - The pressure on interest margins from the demand side is expected to ease as the second synchronized decline in LPR and deposits occurs this year. The pricing of loans relative to LPR is anticipated to stabilize [2][4]. - The impact of declining bond yields on the investment side is expected to be moderate and can be offset by lower funding rates and other positive factors [2]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on major state-owned banks and smaller banks that are likely to benefit from recent policy combinations, particularly those with higher exposure to local hidden debts and risk concerns [2]. Recommended banks include ICBC, Postal Savings Bank, China Merchants Bank, and several regional banks [2].