有色金属：“金九”钢招量再创新高，钼行业持续向好

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the non-ferrous metals industry is "Positive" as of October 23, 2024, indicating an expectation of overall sector returns exceeding the benchmark index by more than 10% [1]. Core Viewpoints - The molybdenum industry is experiencing high demand, with domestic steel mills' bidding volume for molybdenum iron reaching 15,900 tons in September 2024, a new high for the year. The total bidding volume from January to September 2024 was 114,000 tons, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 24% [1][4]. - Global molybdenum supply is expected to remain rigid over the next two years due to limited new mining projects and declining ore grades, particularly in South America, which is the main production area for overseas molybdenum [1][5]. - The demand for molybdenum is benefiting from the robust growth in high-end manufacturing sectors, with fixed asset investment in railways, shipbuilding, aerospace, and other transportation equipment increasing by 30.7% year-on-year from January to August 2024 [1][5]. - Molybdenum prices have shown a slight increase, with the price for 40%-45% grade molybdenum concentrate reaching 3,710 yuan per ton as of October 16, 2024, and there is potential for further price increases in the future [1][8]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The bidding volume for molybdenum iron in September 2024 reached 15,900 tons, marking a new high for the year, with a total of 114,000 tons from January to September, up 24% year-on-year [1][4]. Supply Dynamics - Limited new molybdenum mining projects and declining ore grades are expected to keep global supply rigid over the next two years, with significant contributions from the Quebrada Blanca Phase II project in South America [1][5]. Demand Trends - The ongoing transformation and upgrading of China's manufacturing sector are driving strong demand for molybdenum, particularly in high-end manufacturing fields such as shipbuilding and aerospace, with substantial increases in fixed asset investments [1][5]. Price Outlook - Molybdenum prices are currently stable with potential for future increases, supported by strong domestic manufacturing demand and a rigid supply environment [1][8].