站在新一轮周期的起点

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the aerospace and military industry [1] Core Views - The aerospace and military sector is expected to experience profit recovery similar to the 2020-2021 period, with a projected industry demand bottoming out [3][4] - The investment logic has shifted to performance-driven factors since 2021, with a focus on core sectors such as information technology, new materials, and aviation engines [1][3] - The next five-year plan is anticipated to bring significant demand, leading to a recovery in sector profits [4][8] Summary by Sections Historical Performance Analysis - The report reviews three major market upswings: 2006-2007, 2014-2015, and 2020-2021, highlighting that the military index outperformed the broader market during these periods [3][17] - The military index saw a 1113% increase from 2006-2007, 277% from 2014-2015, and 72% from 2020-2021, with the latter being driven by fundamental performance rather than speculative themes [3][17] Current Industry Outlook - The industry is currently at a similar stage to the 2020-2021 period, with key indicators suggesting a demand recovery [3][10] - Downstream manufacturers are expected to see new orders materialize, while midstream suppliers are expanding capacity, which will enhance order transmission and task acceptance capabilities [1][10] Profit Growth Projections - The average net profit growth rates for the aerospace and military sector from 2024 to 2026 are projected at 27.64%, 53.59%, and 28.44%, with median values of 20.00%, 32.14%, and 26.51% respectively [8][10] Key Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on sectors with increasing domestic production rates and penetration, particularly in information technology, new materials, aviation engines, and emerging fields [1][3] - Specific companies recommended for investment include AVIC Shenyang Aircraft Corporation, AVIC Xi'an Aircraft Industry Group, and Aerospace Electric [1][10]